Will Soccer ever make it big in America?

Can soccer ever become a primary commercial sport in America?

If I asked this question 10 years ago, I would have received an easy answer of "probably not" from most anyone due to the lack of audience and failures of the US professional system. Another common answer would be "why would anyone watch a game where there can be a 0-0 tie", a typical "patriotic" response. But, 10 years later it is beginning to look like the United States might be ready to move soccer from a secondary sport to the big time.

While the MLS is still not considered an elite league, it is clearly becoming a destination for older stars and 2nd tier youth talent (predominantly from USA, Central America and Southern America). Players like Beckham, Ljunberg, Henry, Marquez all gave up the chance to play in top flight leagues to play in the MLS, likely for the money, commercial value and/or the chance to help develop US professional soccer. While collecting a pool past-their-prime stars doesn't exactly mean the MLS will develop into a premier destination for talent, it is an example that it might become a destination for players who want a fresh start or a substantial change in venue, with proper payment of course. Many secondary leagues in other countries buy top notch players at a price, as witnessed by teams in Russia, Middle East, and Asia. This growing trend is clearly helping the MLS garner more viewership (as seen with the Beckham experiment).

MLS attendance is up to 18k per game, up over 3k per game in the last 10 years, a sign of possibly more good things to come. The commercial value of soccer has clearly increased, as the European Championship was broadcasted on ESPN and the English Premier league has received plentiful airtime. However, Soccer is still a secondary televised sport and the US is clearly behind the international powerhouses in talent (at both country and club level). For the United States to become infatuated with Soccer like Football or Basketball, it will require the United States to develop more talent via academies and better organized youth programs, much like the ones that have developed Spain to a powerhouse. The youth numbers are there as an estimated 17.5 million children were playing soccer in 2002 and is likely much higher now, so its just a matter of the US soccer federation (with help from MLS) developing a stronger youth program. Already US players have developed into world class talent and we see them beginning to appear in top foreign leagues (Dempsey in England, Bradley in Italy, etc).

When the United States begins to win at the world level (where World Cup viewership has increased steadily), it will likely increase viewership for the sport overall. As much as Americans refuse to admit it, defeating the World at its most popular game would be a great boost to the sports popularity, as I witnessed  during the Americans run and near defeat of Germany in 2002. Sure, there are the commercial restraints that soccer proposes (no commercials during play) and a natural resistance from American fans (low scoring, slow, etc), but they don't truly threaten the sports future success. If America is to make the Soccer one of its beloved 3 (so it would become 4), it will need to continue to develop the outstanding youth pool it has (17.1 million would put it at over 15 million larger than Spain) by building soccer academies and developing young talent similar to the MLB. Once young American stars begin to turn up in the MLS and more importantly across the globe, the US will have more of a reason to tune in.

I believe soccer is still 20 years away from being a potential top American sport like Baseball, Basketball and Football. Strong US results in the 2014 world cup would certainly boost the chances of that happening, but isn't exactly dependent on it either. Kids that play soccer young will likely become attracted to watching the game and will help increase viewership from the sport even without US international success. As we are seeing now, viewership for foreign leagues is increasing fast and will likely mean higher viewership for our own leagues. Lets not forget, it wasn't long ago that American Football was separated into 2 leagues and was miles behind baseball in popularity, times do change.

Obama Re-elected: What Industries Benefit?

Now that President Barack Obama has been re-elected for a 2nd term, will there be any benefactors on wall street? The common notion is that Republican presidents are better for the market due to lower tax brackets, simpler labor laws, etc, but there are also areas that will benefit from the return of Obama. Here are some ideas:

Alternative Fuels
Not that things were going all too well for them before Obama was re-elected, but you can feel pretty assured that public funding will still be there and restrictions against crude forms of fuel will maintain at least their current levels if not get stricter. Also, without having to win re-election , Obama has the opportunity to push greater energy efficiency agenda without worrying about American disdain before election. Obama is very keen on keeping jobs here in America, so he may push to support American made solar companies with taxpayer dollars to keep them competitive with Chinese manufacturers. As solar manufacturing, wind power and other forms of alternative energy get more efficient, they will become cheaper and more likely to be used.

3D Printing
Obama wants to create jobs. Obama  wants to push shorter, more vocational schools to support thriving industries. Obama wants America to make things for the world again. 3D printing technology is a chance for the US to use specialized technical labor to produce items at home at the same or lower cost as shipping them abroad. I think this industry will get all the support it needs with research money and support to thrive. Check out my write up of 3D systems here. 

 CRM and Organizational Efficiency Software
Obama has a young team under him who are very tech savvy. The government knows it needs to reduce payroll and make things more efficient. I believe implementing current technologies into government will be a big focus of the Obama team in the next 4 years. Big contracts will be had and anyone who can make the right stock picks will likely be rewarded.

Anyone else have any thoughts on this matter?

2012 Giants: A Year in Review

If 2010 was the year of torture, 2012 was the year of perseverance.

It started off the same way every year has for the Giants since 2008: they got the pitching staff of a champion...now will their offense do enough to push them through this year? Like most years, I was one of many who was skeptical of Brian Sabeans offseason moves. Beltran walked, Freddy Sanchez was hobbled, Pagan was coming off career lows, Cabrera was coming off career highs and our ROY catcher was returning from just about everything breaking in his lower foot. "Are we winning the world series? Lets just shoot for the NL West."

It became clear I had underestimated Sabean like I have a few other times in his tenure as the GM of the Giants, his offseason moves proved to be both deadly and heartbreaking all at the same time. Pagan brought us back a glimpse of 2010 Torres at the top of the lineup, Cabrera was at the top of the NL batting column, the dumpster dive Blanco was filling in nicely in right field and Theriot was doing his best Freddy Sanchez impersonation. The Giants finally had the look of a average if not above average offense, with guys producing before and after Panda and Posey. Most importantly, while Posey didn't come off the block hitting .300, you could tell the swing was still there and it was only a matter of time before he was going to be back to his old self.

The Giants could very well have been a 100 win team this year had Tim Lincecum been his traditionally excellent self. His struggles I think kept a lot of fans from believing this team was destined for greatness earlier on in the season, as an ERA of 6 would have normally been too much for the Giants bats to make up for. However, when you have a left fielder hitting .350 mid way through the season, it tends to help make up for poor performance in other areas and Cabrera provided a spark that I hadn't seen since the 2009 version of Pablo Sandoval and then some. Cabrera quickly became the face of the Giants and put them in the national spotlight when he took home All Star MVP honors.

The first time I realized that the Giants were a serious contender in 2012 was when I attended a game on August 14th, 2012 for this lineup:

Angel Pagan CF

Marco Scutaro 2B

Melky Cabrera LF

Buster Posey C

Pablo Sandoval 3B

Hunter Pence RF Brandon Belt 1B Brandon Crawford SS Madison Bumgarner P

As a Giant fan since the early 1995, this was the best lineup I had seen since 2003. 4 all-star caliber players in the middle of the lineup, with prototypical 1-2 hitters and some decent thump towards the end of the order. Defensively it was well above average and we had just got a shot in the arm by getting Pence via a steal of a trade (no offense Tommy Joseph, but you're no Zach Wheeler). This was the first time in a while where as a Giant fan I felt like we had one of the best lineups in baseball. That beauty of a lineup lasted one day...

The Cabrera steroid scandal hit the Giants hard and shook a fan base that was feeling pretty darn good about itself. The team appeared to be gelling and Melky was a fan favorite to say the least. To think that this man was fraudulent in his ability and his ethics after all we had believed he had accomplished in the season was frustrating. We were losing our best hitter, as the Dodgers were about to acquire a former all star outfielder, 1st baseman and pitcher. 2 games up, things were not looking good. Yet, again the team persevered...

Buster Posey showed that not only was he an all star caliber player during the 2nd half of the season, but he was capable of being a most valuable player. A .385 batting average, 16 home runs and a 1.100 OPS, while playing catcher; just mind boggling numbers. I would have been more than happy with Buster Posey playing near his 2010 numbers, but he went well above it. Just think about the grind the catching took on his newly reconstructed legs and how instead of surviving, he flourished as the season progressed. And where many similar Sabean moves had succeeded and failed, Sabean makes a move few notice that changes the landscape of our season. Adding Scutaro while Sandoval was down was potentially the move that made the season, as I have never seen a player transform himself or his team like Marco did. He appeared at times as unbreakable: like you almost knew the man was going to drive the ball back up the middle for a base hit. If Sandoval doesn't break the only Hammate bone he has left, there is a good chance that Scutaro is never a Giant. Scutaro was the ultimate figure head for the 2012 Giants, giving it all at the plate and on the field.

When many thought the Dodgers would take us in the standings, they began to slip away and it became clear the Giants were destined to stay atop the NL West. The Giants had lost their best hitter 110 games into the season, picked up a former all star who would barely hit .200 and their rivals had spent 200+ million dollars picking up big names, but the Giants persevered and played fundamental baseball to get a spot in the playoffs. The pitching was suspect the last month of the season and it seemed like the once perfect pitching rotation might actually be a point of weakness (many articles were written about how the reds had a better rotation going into the series) once the playoffs started.

The Reds series was a test for both the Giants players and Giants fans. A collage of arms beat us in game 1 after Cueto went down and we made Bronson Arroyo (who was fantastic) look like a right handed Tom Glavine, hitting the outside with a high 80's fastball and destroying us with his offspeed stuff down. We left San Francisco down 0-2 and many hung their heads low. I did however note at the time that the back end of the Reds rotation would have trouble in games 4 and 5 due to the Cueto injury and Latos history of needing full rest. Lincecum came up big, Rolen committed a rare error, our offense came back to life and our MVP hit a grand slam in a clinching game.

In many ways the Cardinals felt like they would be the hardest test for our team, since they had no weakness and were strong in their bullpen, starting staff and balance through their lineup. The Giants pitching was shaky in games 1,2 and 4, which resulted to a 3-1 lead for the cardinals. Once again, the team was forced to persevere and get back in the series. Zito had the key moment in the series, when he shut the Cardinals down for 7 and 2/3rd innings and brought the series back to ATT where we would shut the Cardinals down for the next 2 games. The bats had clearly come alive and the starting pitching had just had 3 straight amazing performances, they were ready for a over rested and unbalanced Tigers lineup.

The World Series was testament to how the Giants played 2012, great pitching with good defense and enough bursts of offense to keep us in every game. When Pablo hit those 3 home runs against Verlander, I felt for the first time in the playoffs that I was confident we would win. The tigers needed that road victory and could not afford to depend on the tired arms of Sanchez and Scherzer. It was evident during games 3 and 4 that those guys didn't have their best stuff and our hitters were good enough to handle what they had left in the tank. In game 4, everyone knew exactly what we needed in the 10th inning: a bloop and some Marco Scutaro. When he stepped up to the plate, it seemed destined for him to knock in Theriot, as by this point in the season Scutaro could do no wrong. Romo finished the game out in style, striking out the AL MVP Cabrera and giving San Francisco its 2nd World Series in 3 years.

The 2012 giants were vastly different than the 2010 version, no torture, just strong fundamental baseball from a group of guys that played for each other. The Matt Cain perfect game symbolized the 2012 Giants: when every guy steps up and does their job, perfection really is possible. This team didn't rely on timely home runs like the 2010 Giants and lightning in the bottle wasn't what got us to the World Series. We did all the little things and we did them better than our opponents, whether it was leading the league in sac flys, bunting guys over in the 10th inning, making that diving catch with runners in scoring position or shutting down a teams running attack. Think about all the adversities the Giants faced this year:

• Lose closer to season ending surgery
• 2 Time Cy Young Pitcher finishes the year with a 5+ ERA, the highest among qualifying starters
• 1B prospect hits 7 home runs for the year after hitting 9 in his first season in 2/5 the plate appearances
• Pablo Sandoval only plays in 108 games after breaking his Hammate bone again
• 1st half MVP tests positive for PEDs and is shut down for the season
• To help the team after losing 1st half MVP, add a former all star who hits only .219 for the rest of the season. 
• cleanup hitter is coming off season ending ankle surgery the year before

When something went wrong, there was always someone to step up and fill the shoes. It was a classy team that played hard and did enough to support the brilliant pitching. The bullpen during the playoffs was unbelievable, as it produced 2.35 era and .180 batting average in support of starting pitching that often needed 3+ innings of work. The 2012 Giants will be remembered by most for producing 6 elimination game victories, tying the all time record. I will remember it for being the best TEAM I have ever watched in San Francisco. 

(Near) Mid Season NFL Power Rankings

Week 7 ended with a classic Chicago Bears win (just scoring enough to support a strong defensive performance) and its about time to issue my power rankings. My rankings are no solely based on record or performance so far, but rather a teams chances to win the Super Bowl. So here they are:

1. Green Bay Packers (4-3): Beat up a dominant Texans team and reversing their momentum after a terrible start. Rodgers is still the best QB in football and that alone gives them a great shot at the Super Bowl. The Defense is vastly improved and while injuries are starting to pile up with Jennings, Woodson and MLB Smith our, this team has more than enough talent to get it done.

2. Houston Texans (6-1): Their defense and run game will ensure they beat bad and mediocre teams, but they clearly need to work on defending the pass and injuries are starting to pile up. Schaub needs to reconnect with Andre Johnson to regain a 2nd dimension on offense. They should win the AFC and get a shot at the superbowl, but you would have to think the passing attacks of New England, Pittsburgh and Denver could knock them out in the 2nd round.

3. New York Giants (5-2): The Giants and Packers have taught us one thing in this decade, a pass rush and a great quarterback is all it takes to win a Super Bowl. The Giants have shown this year that they have both of those and with the running game starting to show some serious life, they have a great chance to win another Super Bowl. They have the deepest roster on the offensive side of the ball and if they can get a healthy secondary, they will be tough to beat.

4. San Francisco 49ers (5-2): The 49ers have a dominant front 7 that hasn't nearly peaked this season, as Aldon Smith and Justin Smith still haven't produced like they did in 2011. The secondary has holes when that front 7 gives the QB enough time to drop back and deliver, which makes them vulnerable to teams with a good offensive line. Alex Smith is a great game manager, but unless they start completing some throws down the field and to the sidelines, defenses will fill the middle of the field and give them problems.

5. New England (4-3): Great balanced offense that will only get better as o-line + hernandez get healthy and lloyd get more involved. The defense is still a concern, as they lean heavily on their outside pass rush and patrick chung making big plays in the secondary, when healthy. They match up well against Houston and very well could be the AFC champs...yet again.

Biggest Surprise:

Easy...This guy is the most dynamic quarterback in the league and he is a rookie. He throws well in the pocket and this gives him more opportunities to open up defenses for his legs. Defenses load the box and he throws on them, they drop into a zone and he runs on them. 70% passing is INCREDIBLE for anyone, let alone a rookie who throws the ball deep. Defenses will adjust in the 2nd half...and so will RG3. Expect some grand passing totals, especially when Garcon comes back healthy. I knew he would be good, but I thought it would take a lot longer than 1 season for him to play like a top 5 QB.

Biggest Let Down:

Team went 8-8 in 2011 and fired their first year coach. While this roster isn't stacked, with a former top 10 QB, expected top 10 RB and young WR core were supposed to elevate this team to winning the AFC west. What we have seen from them is no running game, a inability to score TD's (even with blazing speed at WR and DMC) and an inconsistent offense. I was optimistic that this team would win the AFC west and now they are 2 games back from mediocrity.

Fantasy Football: Value Picks Part 2

If you missed the first part, it can be found here

This final portion of my top value picks will address players that I think are undervalued at their current ADP (average draft position). And they are:

Brent Celek

Not the sexiest name in fantasy football or a guy who is going to finish top 5 in his position. That being said, skipping on drafting a TE in the 1st 10 rounds will allow you to get deeper at thin positions like RB and QB. Celek has a 123 ADP on yahoo and around the same on CBS sports, or the 13th TE off the board. He finished 2012 with over 800 yards and 5 TD.

There are a few reasons I think Celek is a great value pick:

1. He finished last year 80th overall in yahoo
2. From weeks 8 on, Celek averaged 70 yards per game with 4 TD in that span. That averages out to 1100 yards and about 6 TD for a full season. 
3. The Eagles have no other real red zone threat, as the WR core is undersized. Celek should have more TD opportunities. 
4. Alge Crumpler had over 3 seasons with 700+ yards playing with Vick. Yes, Alge Crumpler who at 31 couldn't cut it in the NFL anymore. 

I would say Celek repeating his 2011 is more likely than him dropping off, especially if Vick can stay on the field. If that is the case, than he is worth at least a pick anywhere after 100, 21 picks before where he is going. He is not a top 5 TE, but he has the potential to be top 10, like he WAS last year. Vernon Davis is going at around 50 and although I have a huge man crush on Vernon, I will wait 50 picks later to grab Celek for similar production. Who knows, if the Eagles decide to play like they did in the 2nd half of 2011, Celek could be ready for his first 1000 yard season.

Shonn Greene

Has Shonn Greene been the replacement for LT and Thomas Jones that Jets fans were hoping? No, he hasn't been amazing or great. As a matter of fact, a lot of fantasy experts can't stand Greene or his performance the last 2 years. This is exactly why you should buy low on a former "breakout" candidate the last 2 years.

Will he finally have the season everyone thought was possible (1500 with 10td)? Probably not
Will he finally become a home run threat that helps the Jets make it back to the super bowl? No
Is he ranked 75th overall in yahoo and as the 26th best back on the board? Yes

Even CBS has this guy ranked well outside the top 40 players and so will most of the guys in your league who are DYING to draft CJ Spiller way too early. Shonn Greene finished last year as the 49th best player overall in yahoo rankings and as the 18th best back. He has no one on the depth chart that will steal carries (actually LT is gone and fumble prone mcknight is a 3rd down back at best).

Tebow might get some goal line carries, but the wildcat might actually get Greene more open lanes than he is used to, when teams are stacking 8 in the box. I'm not saying Draft Greene at 40 where he finished last year, but let other guys reach on "sleepers" like Spiller and Roy Helu while you pick up Greene in the 6th or 7th round potentially.

Denarius Moore 

Seems like analysts are going crazy with DHB as the breakout player of the year, but I still believe route running and hands are important aspects of football. Now, the guy lining up on the opposite side of DHB will be Denarius Moore and he has some breakaway speed as well, not to mention he can also catch.

Moore is going 96th overall in yahoo which seems right for a guy who finished 114th in overall fantasy points. However, he also missed 5 games last year and was pretty much the 3rd wr in another 2 where he had 2 or less catches. If you just take his stats from his 6 games started with Palmer under center, you get 406 yards receiving with 3 TD. Average that for 16 games and you get a wicked line of 1080 yards with 7-8 td.

Now Moore is more of a breakout pick for me than a great value pick, but when you consider the upside and the 10th round ADP, its hard not to consider that a good value for a breakout pick. I would like  to think Palmer will get more comfortable with the Raiders system and I think Moore will become his #1.

Dwight Howard in LA

That is all

Economic Growth Potential Part 1: American Manufacturing

It's easy to get caught up trying to figure out where the market as a whole is going to move in the future, which I can already tell you is likely up some and down some. As someone who is generally not equipped or trained in playing short term gains, I invest with the belief that I likely won't need to check how my stocks are doing every day. This gives me the benefit of not worrying too much about the direction of the market as a whole, unless we are talking a large scale movement down like a recession.

So, its worthwhile for me to focus on specific industries or areas of growth in the upcoming future, to help narrow my focus on companies that have even larger potential than their numbers show. The benefits being, when these industries start to really pick up, I am already sitting on some top stocks that will benefit. So here is my first pick for an emerging growth area.

American Manufacturing

 So, you may be ready to hit the back button to get distance yourself from my blog and I understand, the last 2 decades have not been kind to American manufacturing. We possess an expensive labor force, strict government regulation and face cheap foreign manufacturing. That being said, there are a number factors that lead me to believe that the decline is done and a bright future exists.

America has the benefit of being a country that contains expansive amounts of natural resources, especially oils and minerals. American mining has seen large growth in the last decade, including a 67% percent increase in employment, with global exploration spending down from 20% in 1993 to just 8% today. Just listen to this video for a brief summary

Having a stockpile of natural resources, strong transportation infrastructure (which much of Africa and Asia do not) and a history of manufacturing quality will make it much more attractive for companies to start returning their manufacturing to the United States.

Another key aspect of why I believe American Manufacturing will see large growth in the next decade is the advancements in manufacturing technology. Everyone has seen the Lexus commercials so that show up the mechanical arms that can basically create the cars and these technologies are only getting better. I believe components such as 3D Printing and advanced computing will allow manufacturers to remove labor from a lob of the components that now require it, by computer crafting most of the components. This will reduce the amount of manual labor needed, but also provide a large number of specialized workers that will require specialized computer skills. The days of the union Joe who crafted great cars by hands is still likely soon to be over, but it makes sense to have American workers doing the more specialized work without paying the shipping costs. Automation, the fear of the blue collar work force, may be the key in what brings a lot of the factories and work back to America.

Last but not least, I believe American companies are starting to really feel the heat from their foreign production. Its hard for them to control the plants they are working with and we have seen tons of negative publicity about labor conditions. Companies who still produce in America proudly show their "made in america" labels and I think this will not change. With labor rates rising in places like China, Vietnam and India, it will make sense once automation is more realistic, to move these jobs back.. Also, with college getting more expensive, a lot of young people might instead choose to try and make a career in something like manufacturing that doesn't require a degree for entry.

Some stocks I like who might benefit from this trend:
UTX:Make a lot of things like elevators, escalators and some aerospace components. Would benefit from automation. They would help supply elements for factories and new buildings.
DDD: Already one of my favorite stocks. Their technology could be a huge part of the development of American Manufacturing automation and efficiency.
AXL: Master of Drivetrain systems, which include commercial and large scale freight. More manufacturing means more trucks and transportation.

NFL Preseason Picks

Here are my picks for 2012-2013 season. You will have my Super Bowl pick, my most improved teams (1 from each conference) and my biggest expected disappointments. 

Super Bowl Picks

NFC Representative: Green Bay Packers 

Elite QB in his prime: check

Elite WR core with extreme depth: check

Defense coming off injury plagued season and now healthy: check

Underrated running game that averaged over 4 yards per game: check

Add a pro bowl center who is one of the best ever at blitz coverage: check

Draft a athletic freak to fix a gaping hole at OLB in Nick Perry: check

2nd lowest opponent winning percentage for 2012 schedule: check

As you can tell, I am very high on the Green Bay Packers coming into the 2012 season. They have a roster that is completely stacked on the offensive side of the ball and that has shown it is capable of being record breaking. The addition of Saturday to compliment the already powerful line was a great 1 year move that will help keep Rodgers upright even more this year. The defense which was injury plagued and underperformed will get a chance at redemption, a year removed from being a ballhawking, turnover causing machine (not to mention 5th in ypg in 2010 to 32nd in 2011). With Woodson, Mathews, Raji, Bishop, Williams and Burnett, there is no way this team finishes anywhere near 32nd this year. 

This team could easily win 12 games and 14 doesn't really sound too far off. I think this team does what we expected last year and dominates the NFC, all the way to the superbowl. 

AFC Representative: Pittsburgh Steelers

This one was not quite as easy for me to pick, as the AFC has a number of elite teams, but no real sure pick. Its hard to not like Bill and Tom in New England, but they didn't make enough moves on the defensive side of the ball to make me confident. I also think defenses will adjust to their double TE formations that were absolutely terrifying last year. While my NFC pick is extremely logical, my AFC pick is more gut and acknowledging that the last 5 super bowls have showcased above average teams that get really hot. 

The Steelers will get back to the basics that helped them win 2 superbowls in the 1st decade of the new millenium and have 2 power backs in Dwyer and Redmond to get the job done, before Mendenhall returns. Sure, with Bens shoulder and Wallace holding out, things aren't looking great to start the season, but they had a great draft to go along with a top defense. I think the combination of Wallace, Brown and Sanders will give defenses a lot of reasons to not stack the front and I think Haley will bring back a nice mixed attack. I think their defense will get them enough wins to win the division and I think they can control field position and sneak into the bowl. Not a great reasoning, but the Steelers have 1-2 years to make another run. 

Super Bowl Winner: Green Bay Packers

They are the best all around team, with above average players at most all positions. Rodgers in his prime is almost enough to convince me, but there is plenty more talent on the books. 

Most Improved

NFC: Carolina Panthers

Some people are going to make this pick thinking Cam Newton is ready to ascend to elite QB status. I think they are going to be the NFC's most improved team, because they had a great offseason, which included shoring up their defense which was ranked 28th in ypg. Drafting Kuechly gives them a deep LB core that is among the best in the league, similar to how the 49ers built their top defense over the past 4 years. A nice mid round on Josh Norman might give them a legitimate # 2 cb once he gets used to NFL game speed, which they lacked last year. The secondary is still lacking enough punch to make them a real SB contender, but I think this team can hit 10-8 and possibly sneak into the playoffs, 2 years removed from being the worst team in football. 

Cam Newton might see some small regressions as teams adjust to his film and tendencies, but even so, the 3 headed beast of a running attack should keep the ball in their hands and help maintain field position. If Newton can limit the turnovers and maintain the deep threat, I think this offense could easily be top 5 in both passing and rushing. That alone should keep them in ballgames and with some progress by the defense, they could see a 4 win increase over last year. 

AFC: Buffalo Bills

This was the easiest pick of all the selections for my preseason picks. This team went out and made enough upgrades where I think their defense will go from 7th worst to possibly a top 10 unit in 1 year. Mario Williams and Mark Anderson give this team a huge boost in the pass rush, while already having a young Dareus to fill the middle. Adding Kirk Morrison to Barnett in the LB corp will make this team more equipped to stop the run. Adding a top CB in Gillmore to the secondary might make this one of the better secondaries in the league with Byrd one of the more active safeties in the league. 

Fitzpatrick played the 2nd half of the season with 2 broken ribs and it showed in the teams record. I think a healthy Fitz, teamed with Johnson, Nelson, Jackson and Spiller will be an above average offense, with the potential to be really good. TJ Graham was a criticized pick, but will help them in the return game and as a potential slot wr with good deep threat speed. 

Bills won't take over the East just yet, but a 9 win season would not surprise me one bit. 

Biggest Disappointments

NFC: New Orleans Saints

Not having the master of offensive strategy (Sir Sean Payton) will not help their cause, but I think an aging roster that has lost a core lineman, deep threat and team leading mlb would be in trouble even with Payton. Brees will do what he does best and pass for a lot of yards, but I think Paytons in game changes will definitely be missed. This defense is no longer the turnover creating machine it was during the Saints SB run and I think teams will learn how to keep Brees off the field. 

The distractions, crappy defense, aging roster and lack of coaching will likely keep the Saints from being the division leader with a strong Falcons team and 2 up and coming division foes in the Panthers and Bucs. I see a potential 8 win season on the horizon and I don't think that will be enough to make the playoffs, a major disappointment for a team who was close to an NFC championship game last year. 

AFC: Baltimore Ravens

An aging defensive core who is unlikely to have Suggs back near 100% might mean that the Ravens are ready to drop from the top of the AFC North. Reed, Lewis are on the wrong side of 30 and the defense lost a number of key starters to free agency. Baltimore has been known to bounce back and rebuild defenses quickly, but that was with Reed, Lewis and co on the right side of 30. 

The offense lacks a true # 1 WR with Boldin looking old and Torrey Smith being a glorified #2. Ray Rice will get his 1,000 + on the ground, but in a league where passing is key, the Ravens don't have enough punch to compete with the big boys in my opinion. Now I could be wrong and the defense could maintain its top 5 level, but I still think the Ravens are more of a 10 win team than 12. 10 wins in a hyper competitive AFC North might (Bengals look improved) mean that they land in a wild card spot or even worse. This team looked destined to make a SB run the last 3 years and anything short of an AFC championship game will be a disappointment. I put their odds at 50/50 on not making the playoffs with the lack of offensive upgrades, injury to their best defensive player and aging core.  

Going, Going, Gone...

Here are my picks for July. In this segment I pick 2 stocks that I am high on and 1 that I am not so high on.

Going (Long Buy): Petroleo Brasileiro SA PBR
This stock could be one of those stocks that make you say "why didn't I buy that stock when it was down in the gutter and everyone knew it would recover". PBR is the biggest oil company in Brazil (a growing market, which happens to be hosting the world cup in 2 years) and a history of success. Some recent legislation and a spill have put some negative light on the company, but with a P/E of 6, a solid dividend and a Q1 net profit margin that was up over 2011, it appears to be a decent value. At 19.50, it is down after being in the 30's in March. I bought in at 25 and although results haven't been great so far, I bought thinking long term and now its even a potential better value than before.

Another reason I am so high on Petroleo Brasileiro is that they have the rights to most of the deepwater wells off the coast of brazil, which are some of the biggest deep water reserves in the world. The economist did a write up about these reserves last year and if Petroleo Brasileiro can harness those reserves (as well as get through the legislation), their pool of oil could grow immensely. Oil companies have a history of hitting bumps and I think PBR could be on the upswing.

Going (1 Year - Long Buy): Skullcandy Inc SKUL
I personally think they offer the best value in the headphones category, which is saying something since they are supposed to be the "stylish" line. Their image keeps them relevant and will allow them to harness the youth market for a long time, with their endorsement program (that includes Kevin Durant and James Harden) and personalized products. They offer both entry and mid level products, which prevents them from being dependent on one market.

Another reason I am high in Skullcandy is the amount of shorts that are out on the stock. Apparently a lot of investors thought Skullcandy would be a bust after its IPO and looked to short. However, after 3 straight strong financial announcements, its looking like few of these people will be picking up their shorts and this will likely lead to an increased evaluation as the percentage of stock that is shorted is reduced.

Skullcandy products sync are compatible with iOS products and will likely see a huge boon in sales after the release of the new iPhone at some point in the new quarter. 9 analysts are calling for a $22 valuation, which means if you buy now at 14.50, there is some nice room for growth.

Gone (Stay Away): Microsoft MSFT
I actually liked Microsofts recovery prior to hearing the news that they were releasing not 1, but 2 tablets into the consumer market. While I agree the new surface tablet will sell, there are a lot of investors looking at Microsoft as capable of outselling the iPad. A lot of people will argue that the iPhone market share seemed insurmountable before the Android products came out, but I think phones are selected much differently than a tablet device. A tablet is not a necessity that every person feels they need, but rather a device for pleasure. Android phones are offered at a number of different prices, sizes and carriers, which allow people who wouldn't pay over 100 bucks for a phone to have a "android" phone. Microsoft isn't going to be able to just have their product offered in more places, it is going to have to out-cool the iPad and Microsoft has never been at the forefront of "cool".

Also, anyone who uses a tablet knows the key to the experience is the elegance of the apps, which Microsoft will be years behind iOS and even Android. I find it very hard to believe that Microsoft can create the level of development and applications that we see on iOS anytime soon, or for a profit for that matter. All the bells and whistles that were shown off were quite minimal in my opinion (who really cares about using it as a secondary controller for Xbox?) and as we all know, its all about the software. Mixed reviews on Windows 8 and their track record with making their own hardware scares me on this one. Lets not forget, their one success was the xbox 360 which came out BEFORE the PS3, not 2 years after like in the tablet market.

Own Your Favorite Team! Or At Least Part of Man U

I think many enthusiastic sports fans such as myself like to put on their GM "hat" and ponder moves that should be made to improve our favorite teams. I personally have hated and praised Brian Sabbean more times than I can remember, by judging his moves (or lack of) directly after they happen. Wouldn't it be cool to have an ownership share of your favorite team? Well, for only the 3rd time in sporting history (Green Bay Packers are public and the Cleveland Indians were once before) a professional team will soon be available for purchase on the stock market.

Manchester United recently announced it will file for an IPO that will make it available for public ownership on the stock market. While many Americans who don't follow soccer may not understand the magnitude of a team like this going public, its comparable to the Yankees going public. With Man U's strong record of succes, powerful brand reputation and soccer viewership growing across the world (including the US), Manchester United appears to be a real investment with potential growth. 

While owning a small share of stock in your favorite team might not make the world of difference in how ownership acts, it could potentially have huge impacts on the franchises. One theory would be that it would reduce gaudy contracts, since teams would be forced to make decisions that were more fiscally responsible. Maybe the San Francisco Giants ownership wouldn't have spent 126 million on Barry Zito, a move that many people believe was pushed solely by the chief owner at the time, because there would have been so much pressure by the investors to make a better deal. How can you reason to fans during rebuilding, that 126 million for a slightly above average pitcher makes sense? 

Maybe if the Oakland A's could gain some extra funding from an IPO, they too could make more moves in the market to combine with their excellent drafting and scouting. Smart investors would be able to buy low on teams with a plethora of talent down the pipe line or on teams with new owners that have a real plan to turn their franchise around. The extra funding from IPOs would be a huge help to small market teams that have good talent, because they would be able to gain new sources of cash. This might help small market teams to invest more in resigning free agents and making more "splash" moves.

Lets say all teams were public, I would be buying up these stocks:
- Tampa Bay Rays: Low payroll, strong results, solid development staff. If the franchise is sold, to a better market, stock value could shoot through the ceiling.
- OKC Thunder: Great young superstars, lots of room to grow. Potential multiple championships down the line
- Carolina Panthers: Cam Newtons potential, some nice defensive additions in the draft
- Washington Nationals: Strasburg, Harper, strong minor league system, great starting rotation.

It will be interesting to see what the future holds for sports franchises and going public, but I expect only a small minority with powerful brands will look to have their shares available to the public. I think it would be pretty cool to buy your favorite franchise during a rebuild, only to watch the stock soar when they return to greatness.

Bud Selig is destroying baseball...

There are a lot of reasons that people point to when discussing the poor decision making of Bud Selig. His biggest PR busts are likely the all star game tie and his handling of the Expos, before he shipped them off the the capitol. My biggest issue with Bud is inability to respect the traditions of baseball, when history is so important to the game itself.

I think his biggest downfall was how he handled steroids, before and after the public outing of so many cherished MLB athletes. He will likely play dumb to his death, but I find it hard to believe that Bud had no idea there was any roids in the locker rooms, when it sounds like a lot of players knew what was going on. Not to mention, he had million$ of reasons to play dumb, when Big Mac, Slammin Sammy and Bonds were breaking records left and right. What makes it so obvious that Selig didn't want to clean up the game as soon as possible, was his lame excuse of a testing program that allowed players a year of testing with no punishment before the "real" programs debut in 2005. What makes it even more interesting, is that Selig only "fought" for these new testing procedures after the public Balco scandal of 2003. This seams less that Selig had no idea and more that he felt there was nothing he could do to hide it from the public eye. His lack of initiative and decision to let steroids run their course will forever tarnish the golden years of baseball for me, watching Barry Bonds in my home park and believing that I was watching the greatest player to ever live. He either is a coward or stupid, neither strong traits for a commissioner. He will forever be the man in charge during the asterisk years, what a sad feat. 

So since Selig has to make poor decisions every year, this time around he decides last minute to add a 2nd wild card team for each league. I don't care if every other sport has at least 6 teams in the playoffs from each league, because none of them have 162 games to earn that spot or have the tradition that baseball has. It was an easy decision for Bud though, as we all know he loves cash and this will basically earn the league more playoff revenue. What is so repulsive is that the two wild card teams now get a 1 game playoff to decide their fates. 1 game, really? If there is one thing that EVERYONE knows about baseball, it is that 1 game cannot measure what team is better, even at that moment in time. This basically makes it a series of my ace vs. your ace. To make it better, the next year there will be a 3 game series, which likely will mean that the division winning playoff teams will have to wait 3-4 days to play their first playoff game. They ruined a perfect format that was exciting, for a unbalanced poorly thought out 5 team wait it out playoff. 

Also, lets not forget that Selig was commissioner during the great strike of 1994. Being the businessman and former owner that he was, Selig sided with the owners and allowed baseball to stop playing. Just to showcase how much Selig was in the owners pockets, they gave him full power on labor negotiations after giving the boot to former commissioner Fay Vincent. 

You can't put all the blame on Bud for all these happenings, but he was the head of baseball during so many poor moments in baseball history. It is his job to protect the legacy of baseball and to help grow it, both of which I can say in confidence he has not. It's too bad, because baseball has so much to offer the future generations, but it will be hard to explain why an entire generation is missing from its records and history books. 

Insider Trading We REALLY Don't Want to See

I listen to a lot of investing podcasts these days and most of the guys I listen to will tell you that insider activity can often assist in figuring out whether or not a stock is going to trend up or down. For instance, when a stock is getting ready to IPO and all of a sudden 20% more shares open up (can anyone guess my example?), it usually means a lot of initial investors are ready to get out! While real insider activity is interesting and useful, I would rather go through hypotheticals that are funny and provide no real education to my viewers. So here we are.

Insider Move #1

Insider Activity: Members of congress begin buying massive amounts of Raytheon stock. 

While it wouldn't be surprising if many congressional members already own tons of defense stocks, based of their protectionist attitude towards defense procurement, massive buys can only mean one thing: WAR WITH IRAN!!! Raytheon creates cruise missiles, which since America tends not to like the negative pub of soldier fatality, would rather launch a shit ton of Raytheon's own Tomahawk Cruise missiles.

Insider Move #2

Insider Activity: Center of Disease Control Scientists invest in Smith and Wesson holdings as well as Hostess

What do ammunition and twinkies have in common? They make great companions during the ZOMBIE APOCALYPSE! When stock in a zombie wasteland there are 2 things every Walking Dead fan knows: you can never have enough bullets and having anything you can eat without creating fire is always a plus. Now, you are probably thinking, why would anyone buy hostess when there are a ton of  other stocks that would provide real nourishment? You have to think like the market! When you think of food lasting forever, what do you think of? Twinkies!!!

Insider Move #3

Insider Activity: Warren Buffet buys copious amounts of Baidu stock, reduces his position in Google.

This one is simple: China is taking over the world. As any investor knows, when Buffet buys he tends to know what hes doing. Buffet usually invests in relatively safe, large cap stocks which are normally not like Baidu (Chinas largest search engine), so its a sign of the death of capitalism. Everyone make sure to buy plenty of red clothing!


Insider Move #4


Insider Activity: Bobby Brown buys large volume of Coke stock

This likely means that Bobby Brown discovered the internet and decided to research the stock market: good for him! Warren Buffet told him to buy stocks that he believes in and he did.

Final Note


While my previous text was all fun (hopefully) and games, it is important to take into account insider activity for a company. When stocks are down and those who run the company are purchasing more stock options, it usually means they think the down is a temporary one. They know the company and financial specifics more than anyone, so they can give away a lot of information. Joel Greenblatt, author of "You Can Be a Stock Market Genius" talks about how when looking at potential trading, insider trading is a big factor in his decision making, especially when it comes to unknown entities like spinoffs and mergers.

Fantasy Football: Value Picks Part 1

The NFL season is coming upon us and I thought it would be a good time to list of the guys I will be aiming for during my drafts. You will often see fantasy gurus have "sleeper" lists, but I think more important than ranking guys based off breakout potential, is picking guys who are undervalued. Selecting Matthew Stafford in the 1st round as a sleeper makes no sense, because you are drafting him as if his potential was his actual value. Here are some guys who I like this year as value picks, based of their expected draft rankings and potential for the year.

Reggie Wayne

Not who you would expect as the 1st guy on my list no? Well he is. Why would I pick someone who is coming off his worst season since 2004 and who is on the wrong side of 30? Because for a guy who CBS has ranked as the 30th best WR in fantasy this year, he is a sure lock for 1000 yards and at least 6 TD. In a 10 team league, you can possibly get Wayne as your 3rd WR! 

Last year he had literally the worst combination of arms throwing to him in the NFL. Painter and Orlovsky (I'm sure I spelled that wrong, but he doesn't merit the fix) make ANYONE an upgrade the following year. Now, he has Andrew Luck who I have little doubt will have a solid first season in the NFL. Wayne is far away the best option for Luck, who has no problems fitting the ball into receivers who are not built around speed, as he did at Stanford. With no Garcon, Clark, Gonzales, it shouldn't take long for Wayne to become Luck's best target. 

Prior to last year, Wayne had experienced 7 straight years of 1,000 plus yards with a ton of talent around him. I think he restarts his 1,000 yard streak with his new #1 pick and is a great value towards the 8th round and above. Instead of gambling on big seasons by Torrey Smith and Brandon Lloyd, get a guy who is a lock to at least match last years stats and possibly put up a 1200+ yard season. 

Issac Redman

I have no idea where Redman will be going off the boards come draft time, but I know that he is going to be THE running back for the Steelers for at least the 1st half of the season. Even if Mendenhall can come back and be productive, I think its for 10 carries a game and not around the goaline. ACL injuries can be tough and its not like Mendenhall was Adrian Peterson before the injury. CBS has Redman ranked at around the 30th best back, near the likes of Willis Mcgahee and Roy Helu. Redman will get 20+ carries a game for a team that wants to get back to its "roots". I'll take Redman. 

Issac averaged over 4.4 yards per carry last year and in the 2 games after Mendenhalls injury, put up 92 and 121 yards. He runs hard and through his blocks, which is what the Steelers will want. I believe he is the best bet for a 3rd RB to crack 1,000 yards and 10 TD. 

Jacob Tamme 

In 2010 Dallas Clarke was injured for 10 games in what would be Peyton Mannings last year with the Colts. In those 10 games, Jacob Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards as a starter. Denver does not have nearly the firepower of the 2010 colts, which makes Tamme all the more likely to be a #1 or #2 target for Manning. Instead of reaching for a Celek or Gresham, wait out your draft and take Tamme as a 3rd tier TE. 

Thomas and Decker will get their looks, but Manning has always loved his guys who sit under the safeties and soak up yards. Thomas and Decker are also unproven in the red zone, which makes me like Tamme all the more so. I think Tamme is a lock for 800 yards with at least 8 TD. That is a low prediction. 

Josh Freeman

Lets just put it this way: it can't get any worse (so we hope) that 2011. After an impressive 2010, Freeman put up one of the worst seasons of any QB last year and made all the gurus who picked him as a breakout player look insane. 22 Interceptions is insanely high, but I think that number will be halved in 2012. 

Freeman has a great core of talent around him with two receivers who can go get it, a TE who he can lean on to move the chains and 2 RBs who will keep defenses in running formations. Even though Freeman was terrible last year at keeping the ball, he still passed at over 62%, which makes me think it was more poor decision making than anything else. The Bucs upgraded every aspect of their offense and I think a more cerebral Sciano will create an offense that works for Freeman. 

Freeman appears to be available after the top 10 QB's are off the board (CBS has him at 18 or 21) so he is a great backup who has the potential to take over if things go right. He had 25 TD's in 2010 without Jackson or Clarke, so I believe the sky is the limit for Freeman. But what if he doesn't improve? Well, you drafted him as your 2nd QB so its ok. 

Going, Going, Gone...

Here are my picks for the month, in the 1st edition of my Going, Going, Gone segment. I pick 2 stocks that I like, and one (or sector) that is now off my radar.

Going (Long Buy): 3D Systems Corporation (DDD)
I bought some stock in February as a long term play and little did I know the stock would shoot up the charts in just 4 months. I am already up over 30%, which is including a 2 month drop off in the market. I'm not telling you to look into the stock because of how well it has done for me, because short term gains are a dime a dozen, but rather because 3D printing technology could play a huge role in the next industrial revolution (more likely just a mini revolution).

Short video demonstrating the power of 3D printing

 While 3D printing is still really the "technology of the future", it is already becoming profitable without even having reached its potential. 3D Systems is already pulling in $0.68 per share. While the P/E is high at 45, that is not bad for a VERY high potential growth pick. 3D printing has the potential to help move manufacturing jobs back to America, getting trained staff to run the machinery and programming for the machines, since the machine does all the labor. There was a great article about 3D printing in  the Economist, which spoke to the potential of large 3D printing devices that could build specialized pieces for aircraft, vehicles and literally anything you could want to manufacture. While its not there yet, I will happily own the stock of the company with some of the most affordable and efficient technology yet.

Going (1 Year Short Buy): Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)
Some will call me crazy for this one, but I got a gut feeling. Revenue was down last quarter...yet again, but anyone who knows gaming knows this company has some top tier gaming titles, two that are on the horizon. Including...

Take-Two needs some help and I believe GTA 5 (release Fall 2012) and the new Bio Shock (release March 2013) will be just what they need. Both of these games will sell like hot cakes and push some serious revenue. When Bioshock 1 came out in August 2007, this stock surged up. When GTA 4 came out in February 2008, this stock went up over 50% in just a month. These could be the last 2 big titles from TTWO before the release of the next generation systems and I want to buy in low. It sounds like they are not renewing their biggest bust (the 2k baseball series, which has been operating at over a 50% loss) and have started to develop mobile games (like bringing old PS2 games to the apple app store). I buy this stock at under 10 and watch it shoot through the roof with the release of GTA 5, then sell when it begins to taper off for a nice gain.

Gone (Stay away, Sell): European Banks
I went the easy way with this one. Its not that these institutions are all bad or mismanaged, its that they all are connected to the Euro and I don't see Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Italy fixing their woes any time soon. The banks will be the support during these hard times and that means growth could be non existent...or worse. I also believe that other areas in Europe will grow before the banks do, such as manufacturing and technology.

Now, once the other sectors start to show life again (real growth), then maybe European banks become a nice buy low target. That being said, I think this last Spanish bailout will surely not be the last, so I would recommend selling or holding back on trying to buy low on European banks. Plenty of good banks in other continents where economies are actually showing signs of recovery.

Screw Spain, Bailout Timmy!

From a team that has produced such one year wonders as Shawn Estes, Jesse Foppert, and Jerome Williams (this year doesn't count, he has plenty of time to screw that up), it shouldn't surprise anyone that San Franciscans worry about their pitchers when things go wrong. With an average (at best) offense throughout the last 7 years, we have depended on our staff to carry us and no one has put more on their backs than Tim Lincecum. In 3 of the last 4 years, Tim Lincecum has been in the top 10 of NL pitchers for WAR. The only season he wasn't was 2010, when he decided that his mediocre (when judged by his own resume) season needed to be vindicated by going 4-1 with a 2.4 era and WHIP under 1 in the playoffs. 

So I finally have to admit, much like the banks in Spain, that I am worried about our situation. Lincecum has had a few hiccups along the way in his career, including August 2010 where he carried a 0-5 record with a 7.82 era. However, we are now in June and there have only been MINOR signs of recovery (like that choice of diction?) and that is being nice.

Timmy just hasn't looked like the same pitcher. The most common "reason" I have heard for his failures have been the loss of fastball velocity. I understand this concept, but I find it hard to believe that a guy with 2 + secondary pitchers can't deal with losing some life on the fastball. Lets take a closer look, thanks to Fangraphs (one of my two best baseball stat and numbers destinations):

2007	93.6
2008	94
2009	92.4
2010	91.2
2011	92.2
2012	90.2

As you can see, Lincecum has lost some velocity before and has been ok. His velocity dropped in 2010 to around 90 mph at one point when he was having issues, but a lot of that was mechanical which Timmy even admitted. I find it hard to believe that you can win a cy young  at 92.4 mph and be an all star at 92.2, but no be able to be nearly the same pitcher at 90.2 mph. Matt Cain has dropped from 92.8 mph to just a tick above 90 this season and he has never looked better. Sure, having more velocity helps set up your secondary pitches, but 92 and 90 are not that vastly different. However, the 2 mph drop in velocity could be pointing to issues with mechanics, which would make some sense.

To further disprove the "velocity is the mother of all success" concept, just take a look at fangraphs pitch values found here. His fastball is actually rated higher this year than last year, while his change up and slider have gone from high end plus pitches to negative in their rating. So, is he just not throwing his breaking pitches with the same movement? Sort of, but not enough to come away with anything conclusive. His change up has the exact same downward movement as last year, while his slider has a lost a little bit of horizontal movement. His swing through rates are also pretty much the same. So, his stuff is pretty much the same in terms of movement and velocity, so whats wrong?


Location + Mechanics

 


Timmy just isn't locating his pitches like he has in previous years. His walk rate is up and from what I have seen of his changeup / slider, he really doesn't seem to know where it is going a lot of the time. In 2008 and 2009, he knew exactly where to locate the changeup, down in the zone or in the dirt. Now it seems like we are seeing that pitch high in the zone more than I can ever remember and in the dirt in counts where he is already behind. In years past, Timmy has had more issues with his windup then in the stretch, but this year appears to be different. In his career with runners on Timmy has actually has a lower batting average and OPS against than when no one is on. This year with RISP: batting average is almost 80 points higher and OPS is over 200 points higher. That screams I cannot locate my pitches when throwing out of the stretch or in a pressure situation.

I'm not going to try to go into details about what is wrong with timmys mechanics out of the stretch, but I do know that with the amount of moving parts he has, getting it right could take some time. Part of it might just be trying to hit the corners too much and he is falling behind, but I find it hard to believe that someone who has won 2 cy young awards is having issues with the pressure of guys on base. Buster Posey mentioned that he thought Timmy was trying to skin the corners a little too much and maybe Timmy just needs to trust his stuff more to get ahead of batters. But his first strike percentage is the highest in his career! If you are getting ahead of batters at the greatest clip in your career and your swinging strike percentages are actually higher than in a year you won a cy young award, I think it means you are giving guys easy takes with your breaking stuff.

In a nutshell:
* Higher first strike percentage than ever before
* Diminished ratings on his secondary pitches, while not losing a lot of movement on them
* Poor RISP numbers, while fairly solid numbers with no one on
* Higher walk rate

These stats point to the fact that Timmy isn't locating his secondary pitches. When you can't find your release point or  your motion is off, the ball can go off in any direction. Sometimes you will throw a changeup 10 feet in front of the plate or sometimes you will throw it high where it can be mashed. I am no pitching expert or guru, but these numbers really do push the concept that this is not a velocity issue or a psychological issue, Timmy just isn't hitting his spots when he is ahead of guys.

Timmy needs to get his Dad back in the picture and work on fixing his delivery, because as showcased in August 2010, Timmy can sort of forget how to pitch. This guy is not done and I find it hard to believe that physically he just can't handle the stress of his violent delivery. Its funny, when Timmy is doing well, everyone says his release takes stress off his arm, but when he is doing poorly, its leading to his decline.

Lets just hope he figures it out soon, because baseball is better for everyone when Timmy is throwing his best.

Facebook: the LA Jaguars

The Facebook IPO has created more buzz than any IPO I can remember in my lifetime, which is amazing considering the only thing they sell is unproven display / social advertising. As someone who entered college (2005) at around the same time Facebook was becoming a household name, I have seen both the power and limitations of Facebook. Facebook is not the next myspace, it is the best social media portal in the world when considering both the membership base and the quality of the product. Now that Facebook has dropped below $27 it is being called the biggest bust in IPO history. Now, it is metaphor time.

Facebook stock is basically the LA Jaguars, the Jaguars franchise that has theoretically moved to LA and is scheduled to play in the Coliseum. Why in the world would anyone want to buy into the LA Jaguars (aka Facebook)? Because they have the potential support (revenue) of the biggest available market in the United States. This is the exact reason that Facebook was over valued, the hype of the company and the potential value directed from the volume of users. If Facebook can figure out how to get the "local market" to spend money in the application, it could become a huge cash cow, but that seems awhile away.

Pros:
Maurice Jones-Drew - Steady and loyal user base
While he may not win you a super bowl by himself, you know that if the rest of your team is working to perfection, this guy is going to help win a lot of games. The only problem is, the greatest running back in the world cannot win games alone (Barry Sanders) without a complete team around him, much like having a boat load of users will not make you money without getting them to buy things or click on ads.

City of LA - Large Market audience
The Jaguars are in LA (theoretically), which is great news if the team can play well and be managed correctly. Think Lakers, Dodgers, Angels. If the team starts to perform, you know it will be backed by a HUGE audience, who will create revenue, encourage sponsors and bring football back to LA. While that is great, there are also the Rams, Raiders and Clippers, who never really made it in the city. Without a great product on the field, LA can easily forget about you and move on. Facebook needs its users to click on more ads (which is currently a small percentile compared to Search Engine ads, that have made  Google very wealthy) and spend more money on apps / products.

Cons:
Blayne Gabbert - Advertising Model
Facebook advertising has all the potential in the world to be amazing, just like Blayne Gabbert. However it definitely isn't one of the best yet, like Blayne Gabbert. Gabbert had such a poor year last year, that people in the league are starting to wonder that even time to grow, will he ever be a top notch quarterback? A 50% completion percentage at 5 yards a clip is not going to cut it, not even with Maurice Jones-Drew busting up the defense on 1st down. Facebook users claim to have clicked on at least one facebook ad about as much as Gabbert has hit his target down the field. If Gabbert doesn't step up and have a solid year, management might lose confidence and he might not ever become the QB everyone thought he could be.

Mike Sims-Walker - The IPO
Want to talk about over-valued? This guy was supposed to be the next elite receiver ever since he took the field, much like Facebook had the biggest IPO buzz. In his 1st year starting he went for 869 yards and 7 TD, no small feat for a guy playing on a run first team. In fantasy circles, everyone was talking about how this guy was going to be the next TO at 6'2 and built like a rock. He shot up draft boards and was considered in the same territory as Wes Welker and Hines Ward. When you get valued at twice what Google is worth, the expectations are immense and you just might lose some valuation. Not saying Facebook is going to get released by Wall  Street like MS-W, but the initial offering proved to be WAY too much.

And for fun...
Justin Blackmon DUI - The GM Exodus
Bad omen to say the least. One of your biggest names that you have obtained, turns around and makes you look like an idiot.

Conclusion: Much like the theoretical LA Jaguars, with Facebook we are going to have to wait and see what they can do before we buy in. Most analysts appear to think Facebook should be valued in the 20-25 range, but due to all the bad publicity it could drop well below that range. Facebook needs to prove that it can not just sustain advertising revenue growth, but make that revenue grow substantially. As an advertiser, Facebook offers a number of nice features, especially regarding targeting and the variety advertising formats available. That being said, Facebook also lacks the quality of ROI features that a Google adwords campaign has. With Google, you can select search terms that show intent to purchase or research, which Facebook advertising currently lacks. I have a gut feeling that the best days for Facebook advertising are ahead of the company, but with the mobile application gaining usage, its vital that Facebook figures out a way to make the mobile platform as profitable.

My recommendation (which is not a professional analyst or broker, so don't actually follow through without doing your own research) is to wait until Facebook figures out how to make money from the mobile apps and then decide whether or not you want to add it your portfolio. If it breaks near the 20 dollar level, I think you will see a lot of those FB haters change their tone and start calling it undervalued for a "high-growth" pick and the stock will begin to climb. While everyone is laughing at FB now, I think it will start to perform once the stink of the IPO has worn off.


Yes, I just compared Facebook to Jaguars...who were moved to LA.
.

Where the Market Meets the Stadium

I love sports...along with millions of other human beings who dedicate their life to following professional sports. My first attempt at a blog lasted about 3 weeks, spanning the end of the 2010 baseball season to after the Giants were done celebrating their first world series in SF. I wanted to keep it going, but I came to realize that there were 100 blogs who already committed more than enough time to writing a plethora of information about the Giants. Who wants to do something that is already being done (and done extremely well) by so many other people?

So here I was faced with my dilemma: I love talking about sports and believe I have something worthwhile to say on multiple points, but I wanted to do something different and interesting. My fiancee' Caitlin said I should keep writing about sports about 2 weeks ago and I told her it was a lost cause since I felt I was bringing little value to any reader. Then it hit me: why not create a sports blog that does more than just inform readers about sports? Sports are great, but they don't provide fans with a number of things people tend to need, such as: money, intellectual prowess (depending on the circle), an understanding of international politics and the list goes on. In the last 3 months, I have officially become a stock owner and another member of the group of people who think they can make more money by predicting the unpredictable. I have been reading up on stock strategies, stock news and a number of other sources that I assumed would make me a better investor. My idea: a merger of two topics which have little in common on the surface, but that require a basic understanding of algebra and have some similarities deep down. The Sports Exchange: Where the Market Meets the Stadium.

In my blog I will do my best to analyze sports and the market, neither of which I do for a living, but have a keen interest in. It will be a learning experience for all as every post I research and write will further develop my knowledge of the market, creating new strategies along the way. So, we begin our journey together via the internet (thank you Al Gore), as I give you my opinion on sports and the market like no one has done before...because who else would think to mix money and sports.