From a team that has produced such one year wonders as Shawn Estes, Jesse Foppert, and Jerome Williams (this year doesn't count, he has plenty of time to screw that up), it shouldn't surprise anyone that San Franciscans worry about their pitchers when things go wrong. With an average (at best) offense throughout the last 7 years, we have depended on our staff to carry us and no one has put more on their backs than Tim Lincecum. In 3 of the last 4 years, Tim Lincecum has been in the top 10 of NL pitchers for
WAR. The only season he wasn't was 2010, when he decided that his mediocre (when judged by his own resume) season needed to be vindicated by going 4-1 with a 2.4 era and WHIP under 1 in the playoffs.
So I finally have to admit, much like the banks in Spain, that I am worried about our situation. Lincecum has had a few hiccups along the way in his career, including August 2010 where he carried a 0-5 record with a 7.82 era. However, we are now in June and there have only been MINOR signs of recovery (like that choice of diction?) and that is being nice.
Timmy just hasn't looked like the same pitcher. The most common "reason" I have heard for his failures have been the loss of fastball velocity. I understand this concept, but I find it hard to believe that a guy with 2 + secondary pitchers can't deal with losing some life on the fastball. Lets take a closer look, thanks to
Fangraphs (one of my two best baseball stat and numbers destinations):
| 2007 |
93.6 |
| 2008 |
94 |
| 2009 |
92.4 |
| 2010 |
91.2 |
| 2011 |
92.2 |
| 2012 |
90.2 |
As you can see, Lincecum has lost some velocity before and has been ok. His velocity dropped in 2010 to around 90 mph at one point when he was having issues, but a lot of that was mechanical which Timmy even admitted. I find it hard to believe that you can win a cy young at 92.4 mph and be an all star at 92.2, but no be able to be nearly the same pitcher at 90.2 mph. Matt Cain has dropped from 92.8 mph to just a tick above 90 this season and he has never looked better. Sure, having more velocity helps set up your secondary pitches, but 92 and 90 are not that vastly different. However, the 2 mph drop in velocity could be pointing to issues with mechanics, which would make some sense.
To further disprove the "velocity is the mother of all success" concept, just take a look at fangraphs pitch values found
here. His fastball is actually rated higher this year than last year, while his change up and slider have gone from high end plus pitches to negative in their rating. So, is he just not throwing his breaking pitches with the same movement? Sort of, but not enough to come away with anything conclusive. His change up has the exact same
downward movement as last year, while his slider has a lost a little bit of
horizontal movement. His swing through rates are also pretty much the same. So, his stuff is pretty much the same in terms of movement and velocity, so whats wrong?
Location + Mechanics
Timmy just isn't locating his pitches like he has in previous years. His walk rate is up and from what I have seen of his changeup / slider, he really doesn't seem to know where it is going a lot of the time. In 2008 and 2009, he knew exactly where to locate the changeup, down in the zone or in the dirt. Now it seems like we are seeing that pitch high in the zone more than I can ever remember and in the dirt in counts where he is already behind. In years past, Timmy has had more issues with his windup then in the stretch, but this year appears to be different. In his career with runners on Timmy has actually has a lower batting average and OPS against than when no one is on. This year with RISP: batting average is almost 80 points higher and OPS is over 200 points higher. That screams I cannot locate my pitches when throwing out of the stretch or in a pressure situation.
I'm not going to try to go into details about what is wrong with timmys mechanics out of the stretch, but I do know that with the amount of moving parts he has, getting it right could take some time. Part of it might just be trying to hit the corners too much and he is falling behind, but I find it hard to believe that someone who has won 2 cy young awards is having issues with the pressure of guys on base. Buster Posey mentioned that he thought Timmy was trying to skin the corners a little too much and maybe Timmy just needs to trust his stuff more to get ahead of batters. But his first strike percentage is the highest in his career! If you are getting ahead of batters at the greatest clip in your career and your swinging strike percentages are actually higher than in a year you won a cy young award, I think it means you are giving guys easy takes with your breaking stuff.
In a nutshell:
* Higher first strike percentage than ever before
* Diminished ratings on his secondary pitches, while not losing a lot of movement on them
* Poor RISP numbers, while fairly solid numbers with no one on
* Higher walk rate
These stats point to the fact that Timmy isn't locating his secondary pitches. When you can't find your release point or your motion is off, the ball can go off in any direction. Sometimes you will throw a changeup 10 feet in front of the plate or sometimes you will throw it high where it can be mashed. I am no pitching expert or guru, but these numbers really do push the concept that this is not a velocity issue or a psychological issue, Timmy just isn't hitting his spots when he is ahead of guys.
Timmy needs to get his Dad back in the picture and work on fixing his delivery, because as showcased in August 2010, Timmy can sort of forget how to pitch. This guy is not done and I find it hard to believe that physically he just can't handle the stress of his violent delivery. Its funny, when Timmy is doing well, everyone says his release takes stress off his arm, but when he is doing poorly, its leading to his decline.
Lets just hope he figures it out soon, because baseball is better for everyone when Timmy is throwing his best.
