Thursday, June 21, 2012

Fantasy Football: Value Picks Part 1

The NFL season is coming upon us and I thought it would be a good time to list of the guys I will be aiming for during my drafts. You will often see fantasy gurus have "sleeper" lists, but I think more important than ranking guys based off breakout potential, is picking guys who are undervalued. Selecting Matthew Stafford in the 1st round as a sleeper makes no sense, because you are drafting him as if his potential was his actual value. Here are some guys who I like this year as value picks, based of their expected draft rankings and potential for the year.



Not who you would expect as the 1st guy on my list no? Well he is. Why would I pick someone who is coming off his worst season since 2004 and who is on the wrong side of 30? Because for a guy who CBS has ranked as the 30th best WR in fantasy this year, he is a sure lock for 1000 yards and at least 6 TD. In a 10 team league, you can possibly get Wayne as your 3rd WR! 

Last year he had literally the worst combination of arms throwing to him in the NFL. Painter and Orlovsky (I'm sure I spelled that wrong, but he doesn't merit the fix) make ANYONE an upgrade the following year. Now, he has Andrew Luck who I have little doubt will have a solid first season in the NFL. Wayne is far away the best option for Luck, who has no problems fitting the ball into receivers who are not built around speed, as he did at Stanford. With no Garcon, Clark, Gonzales, it shouldn't take long for Wayne to become Luck's best target. 

Prior to last year, Wayne had experienced 7 straight years of 1,000 plus yards with a ton of talent around him. I think he restarts his 1,000 yard streak with his new #1 pick and is a great value towards the 8th round and above. Instead of gambling on big seasons by Torrey Smith and Brandon Lloyd, get a guy who is a lock to at least match last years stats and possibly put up a 1200+ yard season. 

I have no idea where Redman will be going off the boards come draft time, but I know that he is going to be THE running back for the Steelers for at least the 1st half of the season. Even if Mendenhall can come back and be productive, I think its for 10 carries a game and not around the goaline. ACL injuries can be tough and its not like Mendenhall was Adrian Peterson before the injury. CBS has Redman ranked at around the 30th best back, near the likes of Willis Mcgahee and Roy Helu. Redman will get 20+ carries a game for a team that wants to get back to its "roots". I'll take Redman. 

Issac averaged over 4.4 yards per carry last year and in the 2 games after Mendenhalls injury, put up 92 and 121 yards. He runs hard and through his blocks, which is what the Steelers will want. I believe he is the best bet for a 3rd RB to crack 1,000 yards and 10 TD. 

In 2010 Dallas Clarke was injured for 10 games in what would be Peyton Mannings last year with the Colts. In those 10 games, Jacob Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards as a starter. Denver does not have nearly the firepower of the 2010 colts, which makes Tamme all the more likely to be a #1 or #2 target for Manning. Instead of reaching for a Celek or Gresham, wait out your draft and take Tamme as a 3rd tier TE. 

Thomas and Decker will get their looks, but Manning has always loved his guys who sit under the safeties and soak up yards. Thomas and Decker are also unproven in the red zone, which makes me like Tamme all the more so. I think Tamme is a lock for 800 yards with at least 8 TD. That is a low prediction. 

Lets just put it this way: it can't get any worse (so we hope) that 2011. After an impressive 2010, Freeman put up one of the worst seasons of any QB last year and made all the gurus who picked him as a breakout player look insane. 22 Interceptions is insanely high, but I think that number will be halved in 2012. 

Freeman has a great core of talent around him with two receivers who can go get it, a TE who he can lean on to move the chains and 2 RBs who will keep defenses in running formations. Even though Freeman was terrible last year at keeping the ball, he still passed at over 62%, which makes me think it was more poor decision making than anything else. The Bucs upgraded every aspect of their offense and I think a more cerebral Sciano will create an offense that works for Freeman. 

Freeman appears to be available after the top 10 QB's are off the board (CBS has him at 18 or 21) so he is a great backup who has the potential to take over if things go right. He had 25 TD's in 2010 without Jackson or Clarke, so I believe the sky is the limit for Freeman. But what if he doesn't improve? Well, you drafted him as your 2nd QB so its ok. 

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