Fantasy Football: Value Picks Part 2

If you missed the first part, it can be found here

This final portion of my top value picks will address players that I think are undervalued at their current ADP (average draft position). And they are:

Brent Celek

Not the sexiest name in fantasy football or a guy who is going to finish top 5 in his position. That being said, skipping on drafting a TE in the 1st 10 rounds will allow you to get deeper at thin positions like RB and QB. Celek has a 123 ADP on yahoo and around the same on CBS sports, or the 13th TE off the board. He finished 2012 with over 800 yards and 5 TD.

There are a few reasons I think Celek is a great value pick:

1. He finished last year 80th overall in yahoo
2. From weeks 8 on, Celek averaged 70 yards per game with 4 TD in that span. That averages out to 1100 yards and about 6 TD for a full season. 
3. The Eagles have no other real red zone threat, as the WR core is undersized. Celek should have more TD opportunities. 
4. Alge Crumpler had over 3 seasons with 700+ yards playing with Vick. Yes, Alge Crumpler who at 31 couldn't cut it in the NFL anymore. 

I would say Celek repeating his 2011 is more likely than him dropping off, especially if Vick can stay on the field. If that is the case, than he is worth at least a pick anywhere after 100, 21 picks before where he is going. He is not a top 5 TE, but he has the potential to be top 10, like he WAS last year. Vernon Davis is going at around 50 and although I have a huge man crush on Vernon, I will wait 50 picks later to grab Celek for similar production. Who knows, if the Eagles decide to play like they did in the 2nd half of 2011, Celek could be ready for his first 1000 yard season.

Shonn Greene

Has Shonn Greene been the replacement for LT and Thomas Jones that Jets fans were hoping? No, he hasn't been amazing or great. As a matter of fact, a lot of fantasy experts can't stand Greene or his performance the last 2 years. This is exactly why you should buy low on a former "breakout" candidate the last 2 years.

Will he finally have the season everyone thought was possible (1500 with 10td)? Probably not
Will he finally become a home run threat that helps the Jets make it back to the super bowl? No
Is he ranked 75th overall in yahoo and as the 26th best back on the board? Yes

Even CBS has this guy ranked well outside the top 40 players and so will most of the guys in your league who are DYING to draft CJ Spiller way too early. Shonn Greene finished last year as the 49th best player overall in yahoo rankings and as the 18th best back. He has no one on the depth chart that will steal carries (actually LT is gone and fumble prone mcknight is a 3rd down back at best).

Tebow might get some goal line carries, but the wildcat might actually get Greene more open lanes than he is used to, when teams are stacking 8 in the box. I'm not saying Draft Greene at 40 where he finished last year, but let other guys reach on "sleepers" like Spiller and Roy Helu while you pick up Greene in the 6th or 7th round potentially.

Denarius Moore 

Seems like analysts are going crazy with DHB as the breakout player of the year, but I still believe route running and hands are important aspects of football. Now, the guy lining up on the opposite side of DHB will be Denarius Moore and he has some breakaway speed as well, not to mention he can also catch.

Moore is going 96th overall in yahoo which seems right for a guy who finished 114th in overall fantasy points. However, he also missed 5 games last year and was pretty much the 3rd wr in another 2 where he had 2 or less catches. If you just take his stats from his 6 games started with Palmer under center, you get 406 yards receiving with 3 TD. Average that for 16 games and you get a wicked line of 1080 yards with 7-8 td.

Now Moore is more of a breakout pick for me than a great value pick, but when you consider the upside and the 10th round ADP, its hard not to consider that a good value for a breakout pick. I would like  to think Palmer will get more comfortable with the Raiders system and I think Moore will become his #1.

Dwight Howard in LA

That is all

Economic Growth Potential Part 1: American Manufacturing

It's easy to get caught up trying to figure out where the market as a whole is going to move in the future, which I can already tell you is likely up some and down some. As someone who is generally not equipped or trained in playing short term gains, I invest with the belief that I likely won't need to check how my stocks are doing every day. This gives me the benefit of not worrying too much about the direction of the market as a whole, unless we are talking a large scale movement down like a recession.

So, its worthwhile for me to focus on specific industries or areas of growth in the upcoming future, to help narrow my focus on companies that have even larger potential than their numbers show. The benefits being, when these industries start to really pick up, I am already sitting on some top stocks that will benefit. So here is my first pick for an emerging growth area.

American Manufacturing

 So, you may be ready to hit the back button to get distance yourself from my blog and I understand, the last 2 decades have not been kind to American manufacturing. We possess an expensive labor force, strict government regulation and face cheap foreign manufacturing. That being said, there are a number factors that lead me to believe that the decline is done and a bright future exists.

America has the benefit of being a country that contains expansive amounts of natural resources, especially oils and minerals. American mining has seen large growth in the last decade, including a 67% percent increase in employment, with global exploration spending down from 20% in 1993 to just 8% today. Just listen to this video for a brief summary

Having a stockpile of natural resources, strong transportation infrastructure (which much of Africa and Asia do not) and a history of manufacturing quality will make it much more attractive for companies to start returning their manufacturing to the United States.

Another key aspect of why I believe American Manufacturing will see large growth in the next decade is the advancements in manufacturing technology. Everyone has seen the Lexus commercials so that show up the mechanical arms that can basically create the cars and these technologies are only getting better. I believe components such as 3D Printing and advanced computing will allow manufacturers to remove labor from a lob of the components that now require it, by computer crafting most of the components. This will reduce the amount of manual labor needed, but also provide a large number of specialized workers that will require specialized computer skills. The days of the union Joe who crafted great cars by hands is still likely soon to be over, but it makes sense to have American workers doing the more specialized work without paying the shipping costs. Automation, the fear of the blue collar work force, may be the key in what brings a lot of the factories and work back to America.

Last but not least, I believe American companies are starting to really feel the heat from their foreign production. Its hard for them to control the plants they are working with and we have seen tons of negative publicity about labor conditions. Companies who still produce in America proudly show their "made in america" labels and I think this will not change. With labor rates rising in places like China, Vietnam and India, it will make sense once automation is more realistic, to move these jobs back.. Also, with college getting more expensive, a lot of young people might instead choose to try and make a career in something like manufacturing that doesn't require a degree for entry.

Some stocks I like who might benefit from this trend:
UTX:Make a lot of things like elevators, escalators and some aerospace components. Would benefit from automation. They would help supply elements for factories and new buildings.
DDD: Already one of my favorite stocks. Their technology could be a huge part of the development of American Manufacturing automation and efficiency.
AXL: Master of Drivetrain systems, which include commercial and large scale freight. More manufacturing means more trucks and transportation.

NFL Preseason Picks

Here are my picks for 2012-2013 season. You will have my Super Bowl pick, my most improved teams (1 from each conference) and my biggest expected disappointments. 

Super Bowl Picks

NFC Representative: Green Bay Packers 

Elite QB in his prime: check

Elite WR core with extreme depth: check

Defense coming off injury plagued season and now healthy: check

Underrated running game that averaged over 4 yards per game: check

Add a pro bowl center who is one of the best ever at blitz coverage: check

Draft a athletic freak to fix a gaping hole at OLB in Nick Perry: check

2nd lowest opponent winning percentage for 2012 schedule: check

As you can tell, I am very high on the Green Bay Packers coming into the 2012 season. They have a roster that is completely stacked on the offensive side of the ball and that has shown it is capable of being record breaking. The addition of Saturday to compliment the already powerful line was a great 1 year move that will help keep Rodgers upright even more this year. The defense which was injury plagued and underperformed will get a chance at redemption, a year removed from being a ballhawking, turnover causing machine (not to mention 5th in ypg in 2010 to 32nd in 2011). With Woodson, Mathews, Raji, Bishop, Williams and Burnett, there is no way this team finishes anywhere near 32nd this year. 

This team could easily win 12 games and 14 doesn't really sound too far off. I think this team does what we expected last year and dominates the NFC, all the way to the superbowl. 

AFC Representative: Pittsburgh Steelers

This one was not quite as easy for me to pick, as the AFC has a number of elite teams, but no real sure pick. Its hard to not like Bill and Tom in New England, but they didn't make enough moves on the defensive side of the ball to make me confident. I also think defenses will adjust to their double TE formations that were absolutely terrifying last year. While my NFC pick is extremely logical, my AFC pick is more gut and acknowledging that the last 5 super bowls have showcased above average teams that get really hot. 

The Steelers will get back to the basics that helped them win 2 superbowls in the 1st decade of the new millenium and have 2 power backs in Dwyer and Redmond to get the job done, before Mendenhall returns. Sure, with Bens shoulder and Wallace holding out, things aren't looking great to start the season, but they had a great draft to go along with a top defense. I think the combination of Wallace, Brown and Sanders will give defenses a lot of reasons to not stack the front and I think Haley will bring back a nice mixed attack. I think their defense will get them enough wins to win the division and I think they can control field position and sneak into the bowl. Not a great reasoning, but the Steelers have 1-2 years to make another run. 

Super Bowl Winner: Green Bay Packers

They are the best all around team, with above average players at most all positions. Rodgers in his prime is almost enough to convince me, but there is plenty more talent on the books. 

Most Improved

NFC: Carolina Panthers

Some people are going to make this pick thinking Cam Newton is ready to ascend to elite QB status. I think they are going to be the NFC's most improved team, because they had a great offseason, which included shoring up their defense which was ranked 28th in ypg. Drafting Kuechly gives them a deep LB core that is among the best in the league, similar to how the 49ers built their top defense over the past 4 years. A nice mid round on Josh Norman might give them a legitimate # 2 cb once he gets used to NFL game speed, which they lacked last year. The secondary is still lacking enough punch to make them a real SB contender, but I think this team can hit 10-8 and possibly sneak into the playoffs, 2 years removed from being the worst team in football. 

Cam Newton might see some small regressions as teams adjust to his film and tendencies, but even so, the 3 headed beast of a running attack should keep the ball in their hands and help maintain field position. If Newton can limit the turnovers and maintain the deep threat, I think this offense could easily be top 5 in both passing and rushing. That alone should keep them in ballgames and with some progress by the defense, they could see a 4 win increase over last year. 

AFC: Buffalo Bills

This was the easiest pick of all the selections for my preseason picks. This team went out and made enough upgrades where I think their defense will go from 7th worst to possibly a top 10 unit in 1 year. Mario Williams and Mark Anderson give this team a huge boost in the pass rush, while already having a young Dareus to fill the middle. Adding Kirk Morrison to Barnett in the LB corp will make this team more equipped to stop the run. Adding a top CB in Gillmore to the secondary might make this one of the better secondaries in the league with Byrd one of the more active safeties in the league. 

Fitzpatrick played the 2nd half of the season with 2 broken ribs and it showed in the teams record. I think a healthy Fitz, teamed with Johnson, Nelson, Jackson and Spiller will be an above average offense, with the potential to be really good. TJ Graham was a criticized pick, but will help them in the return game and as a potential slot wr with good deep threat speed. 

Bills won't take over the East just yet, but a 9 win season would not surprise me one bit. 

Biggest Disappointments

NFC: New Orleans Saints

Not having the master of offensive strategy (Sir Sean Payton) will not help their cause, but I think an aging roster that has lost a core lineman, deep threat and team leading mlb would be in trouble even with Payton. Brees will do what he does best and pass for a lot of yards, but I think Paytons in game changes will definitely be missed. This defense is no longer the turnover creating machine it was during the Saints SB run and I think teams will learn how to keep Brees off the field. 

The distractions, crappy defense, aging roster and lack of coaching will likely keep the Saints from being the division leader with a strong Falcons team and 2 up and coming division foes in the Panthers and Bucs. I see a potential 8 win season on the horizon and I don't think that will be enough to make the playoffs, a major disappointment for a team who was close to an NFC championship game last year. 

AFC: Baltimore Ravens

An aging defensive core who is unlikely to have Suggs back near 100% might mean that the Ravens are ready to drop from the top of the AFC North. Reed, Lewis are on the wrong side of 30 and the defense lost a number of key starters to free agency. Baltimore has been known to bounce back and rebuild defenses quickly, but that was with Reed, Lewis and co on the right side of 30. 

The offense lacks a true # 1 WR with Boldin looking old and Torrey Smith being a glorified #2. Ray Rice will get his 1,000 + on the ground, but in a league where passing is key, the Ravens don't have enough punch to compete with the big boys in my opinion. Now I could be wrong and the defense could maintain its top 5 level, but I still think the Ravens are more of a 10 win team than 12. 10 wins in a hyper competitive AFC North might (Bengals look improved) mean that they land in a wild card spot or even worse. This team looked destined to make a SB run the last 3 years and anything short of an AFC championship game will be a disappointment. I put their odds at 50/50 on not making the playoffs with the lack of offensive upgrades, injury to their best defensive player and aging core.