Fantasy Football: Value Picks Part 2

If you missed the first part, it can be found here

This final portion of my top value picks will address players that I think are undervalued at their current ADP (average draft position). And they are:

Brent Celek

Not the sexiest name in fantasy football or a guy who is going to finish top 5 in his position. That being said, skipping on drafting a TE in the 1st 10 rounds will allow you to get deeper at thin positions like RB and QB. Celek has a 123 ADP on yahoo and around the same on CBS sports, or the 13th TE off the board. He finished 2012 with over 800 yards and 5 TD.

There are a few reasons I think Celek is a great value pick:

1. He finished last year 80th overall in yahoo
2. From weeks 8 on, Celek averaged 70 yards per game with 4 TD in that span. That averages out to 1100 yards and about 6 TD for a full season. 
3. The Eagles have no other real red zone threat, as the WR core is undersized. Celek should have more TD opportunities. 
4. Alge Crumpler had over 3 seasons with 700+ yards playing with Vick. Yes, Alge Crumpler who at 31 couldn't cut it in the NFL anymore. 

I would say Celek repeating his 2011 is more likely than him dropping off, especially if Vick can stay on the field. If that is the case, than he is worth at least a pick anywhere after 100, 21 picks before where he is going. He is not a top 5 TE, but he has the potential to be top 10, like he WAS last year. Vernon Davis is going at around 50 and although I have a huge man crush on Vernon, I will wait 50 picks later to grab Celek for similar production. Who knows, if the Eagles decide to play like they did in the 2nd half of 2011, Celek could be ready for his first 1000 yard season.

Shonn Greene

Has Shonn Greene been the replacement for LT and Thomas Jones that Jets fans were hoping? No, he hasn't been amazing or great. As a matter of fact, a lot of fantasy experts can't stand Greene or his performance the last 2 years. This is exactly why you should buy low on a former "breakout" candidate the last 2 years.

Will he finally have the season everyone thought was possible (1500 with 10td)? Probably not
Will he finally become a home run threat that helps the Jets make it back to the super bowl? No
Is he ranked 75th overall in yahoo and as the 26th best back on the board? Yes

Even CBS has this guy ranked well outside the top 40 players and so will most of the guys in your league who are DYING to draft CJ Spiller way too early. Shonn Greene finished last year as the 49th best player overall in yahoo rankings and as the 18th best back. He has no one on the depth chart that will steal carries (actually LT is gone and fumble prone mcknight is a 3rd down back at best).

Tebow might get some goal line carries, but the wildcat might actually get Greene more open lanes than he is used to, when teams are stacking 8 in the box. I'm not saying Draft Greene at 40 where he finished last year, but let other guys reach on "sleepers" like Spiller and Roy Helu while you pick up Greene in the 6th or 7th round potentially.

Denarius Moore 

Seems like analysts are going crazy with DHB as the breakout player of the year, but I still believe route running and hands are important aspects of football. Now, the guy lining up on the opposite side of DHB will be Denarius Moore and he has some breakaway speed as well, not to mention he can also catch.

Moore is going 96th overall in yahoo which seems right for a guy who finished 114th in overall fantasy points. However, he also missed 5 games last year and was pretty much the 3rd wr in another 2 where he had 2 or less catches. If you just take his stats from his 6 games started with Palmer under center, you get 406 yards receiving with 3 TD. Average that for 16 games and you get a wicked line of 1080 yards with 7-8 td.

Now Moore is more of a breakout pick for me than a great value pick, but when you consider the upside and the 10th round ADP, its hard not to consider that a good value for a breakout pick. I would like  to think Palmer will get more comfortable with the Raiders system and I think Moore will become his #1.