Super Bowl Picks
NFC Representative: Green Bay Packers
Elite QB in his prime: check
Elite WR core with extreme depth: check
Defense coming off injury plagued season and now healthy: check
Underrated running game that averaged over 4 yards per game: check
Add a pro bowl center who is one of the best ever at blitz coverage: check
Draft a athletic freak to fix a gaping hole at OLB in Nick Perry: check
2nd lowest opponent winning percentage for 2012 schedule: check
As you can tell, I am very high on the Green Bay Packers coming into the 2012 season. They have a roster that is completely stacked on the offensive side of the ball and that has shown it is capable of being record breaking. The addition of Saturday to compliment the already powerful line was a great 1 year move that will help keep Rodgers upright even more this year. The defense which was injury plagued and underperformed will get a chance at redemption, a year removed from being a ballhawking, turnover causing machine (not to mention 5th in ypg in 2010 to 32nd in 2011). With Woodson, Mathews, Raji, Bishop, Williams and Burnett, there is no way this team finishes anywhere near 32nd this year.
This team could easily win 12 games and 14 doesn't really sound too far off. I think this team does what we expected last year and dominates the NFC, all the way to the superbowl.
AFC Representative: Pittsburgh Steelers
This one was not quite as easy for me to pick, as the AFC has a number of elite teams, but no real sure pick. Its hard to not like Bill and Tom in New England, but they didn't make enough moves on the defensive side of the ball to make me confident. I also think defenses will adjust to their double TE formations that were absolutely terrifying last year. While my NFC pick is extremely logical, my AFC pick is more gut and acknowledging that the last 5 super bowls have showcased above average teams that get really hot.
The Steelers will get back to the basics that helped them win 2 superbowls in the 1st decade of the new millenium and have 2 power backs in Dwyer and Redmond to get the job done, before Mendenhall returns. Sure, with Bens shoulder and Wallace holding out, things aren't looking great to start the season, but they had a great draft to go along with a top defense. I think the combination of Wallace, Brown and Sanders will give defenses a lot of reasons to not stack the front and I think Haley will bring back a nice mixed attack. I think their defense will get them enough wins to win the division and I think they can control field position and sneak into the bowl. Not a great reasoning, but the Steelers have 1-2 years to make another run.
Super Bowl Winner: Green Bay Packers
They are the best all around team, with above average players at most all positions. Rodgers in his prime is almost enough to convince me, but there is plenty more talent on the books.
Most Improved
NFC: Carolina Panthers
Some people are going to make this pick thinking Cam Newton is ready to ascend to elite QB status. I think they are going to be the NFC's most improved team, because they had a great offseason, which included shoring up their defense which was ranked 28th in ypg. Drafting Kuechly gives them a deep LB core that is among the best in the league, similar to how the 49ers built their top defense over the past 4 years. A nice mid round on Josh Norman might give them a legitimate # 2 cb once he gets used to NFL game speed, which they lacked last year. The secondary is still lacking enough punch to make them a real SB contender, but I think this team can hit 10-8 and possibly sneak into the playoffs, 2 years removed from being the worst team in football.
Cam Newton might see some small regressions as teams adjust to his film and tendencies, but even so, the 3 headed beast of a running attack should keep the ball in their hands and help maintain field position. If Newton can limit the turnovers and maintain the deep threat, I think this offense could easily be top 5 in both passing and rushing. That alone should keep them in ballgames and with some progress by the defense, they could see a 4 win increase over last year.
AFC: Buffalo Bills
This was the easiest pick of all the selections for my preseason picks. This team went out and made enough upgrades where I think their defense will go from 7th worst to possibly a top 10 unit in 1 year. Mario Williams and Mark Anderson give this team a huge boost in the pass rush, while already having a young Dareus to fill the middle. Adding Kirk Morrison to Barnett in the LB corp will make this team more equipped to stop the run. Adding a top CB in Gillmore to the secondary might make this one of the better secondaries in the league with Byrd one of the more active safeties in the league.
Fitzpatrick played the 2nd half of the season with 2 broken ribs and it showed in the teams record. I think a healthy Fitz, teamed with Johnson, Nelson, Jackson and Spiller will be an above average offense, with the potential to be really good. TJ Graham was a criticized pick, but will help them in the return game and as a potential slot wr with good deep threat speed.
Bills won't take over the East just yet, but a 9 win season would not surprise me one bit.
Biggest Disappointments
NFC: New Orleans Saints
Not having the master of offensive strategy (Sir Sean Payton) will not help their cause, but I think an aging roster that has lost a core lineman, deep threat and team leading mlb would be in trouble even with Payton. Brees will do what he does best and pass for a lot of yards, but I think Paytons in game changes will definitely be missed. This defense is no longer the turnover creating machine it was during the Saints SB run and I think teams will learn how to keep Brees off the field.
The distractions, crappy defense, aging roster and lack of coaching will likely keep the Saints from being the division leader with a strong Falcons team and 2 up and coming division foes in the Panthers and Bucs. I see a potential 8 win season on the horizon and I don't think that will be enough to make the playoffs, a major disappointment for a team who was close to an NFC championship game last year.
AFC: Baltimore Ravens
An aging defensive core who is unlikely to have Suggs back near 100% might mean that the Ravens are ready to drop from the top of the AFC North. Reed, Lewis are on the wrong side of 30 and the defense lost a number of key starters to free agency. Baltimore has been known to bounce back and rebuild defenses quickly, but that was with Reed, Lewis and co on the right side of 30.
The offense lacks a true # 1 WR with Boldin looking old and Torrey Smith being a glorified #2. Ray Rice will get his 1,000 + on the ground, but in a league where passing is key, the Ravens don't have enough punch to compete with the big boys in my opinion. Now I could be wrong and the defense could maintain its top 5 level, but I still think the Ravens are more of a 10 win team than 12. 10 wins in a hyper competitive AFC North might (Bengals look improved) mean that they land in a wild card spot or even worse. This team looked destined to make a SB run the last 3 years and anything short of an AFC championship game will be a disappointment. I put their odds at 50/50 on not making the playoffs with the lack of offensive upgrades, injury to their best defensive player and aging core.
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