Will Soccer ever make it big in America?

Can soccer ever become a primary commercial sport in America?

If I asked this question 10 years ago, I would have received an easy answer of "probably not" from most anyone due to the lack of audience and failures of the US professional system. Another common answer would be "why would anyone watch a game where there can be a 0-0 tie", a typical "patriotic" response. But, 10 years later it is beginning to look like the United States might be ready to move soccer from a secondary sport to the big time.

While the MLS is still not considered an elite league, it is clearly becoming a destination for older stars and 2nd tier youth talent (predominantly from USA, Central America and Southern America). Players like Beckham, Ljunberg, Henry, Marquez all gave up the chance to play in top flight leagues to play in the MLS, likely for the money, commercial value and/or the chance to help develop US professional soccer. While collecting a pool past-their-prime stars doesn't exactly mean the MLS will develop into a premier destination for talent, it is an example that it might become a destination for players who want a fresh start or a substantial change in venue, with proper payment of course. Many secondary leagues in other countries buy top notch players at a price, as witnessed by teams in Russia, Middle East, and Asia. This growing trend is clearly helping the MLS garner more viewership (as seen with the Beckham experiment).

MLS attendance is up to 18k per game, up over 3k per game in the last 10 years, a sign of possibly more good things to come. The commercial value of soccer has clearly increased, as the European Championship was broadcasted on ESPN and the English Premier league has received plentiful airtime. However, Soccer is still a secondary televised sport and the US is clearly behind the international powerhouses in talent (at both country and club level). For the United States to become infatuated with Soccer like Football or Basketball, it will require the United States to develop more talent via academies and better organized youth programs, much like the ones that have developed Spain to a powerhouse. The youth numbers are there as an estimated 17.5 million children were playing soccer in 2002 and is likely much higher now, so its just a matter of the US soccer federation (with help from MLS) developing a stronger youth program. Already US players have developed into world class talent and we see them beginning to appear in top foreign leagues (Dempsey in England, Bradley in Italy, etc).

When the United States begins to win at the world level (where World Cup viewership has increased steadily), it will likely increase viewership for the sport overall. As much as Americans refuse to admit it, defeating the World at its most popular game would be a great boost to the sports popularity, as I witnessed  during the Americans run and near defeat of Germany in 2002. Sure, there are the commercial restraints that soccer proposes (no commercials during play) and a natural resistance from American fans (low scoring, slow, etc), but they don't truly threaten the sports future success. If America is to make the Soccer one of its beloved 3 (so it would become 4), it will need to continue to develop the outstanding youth pool it has (17.1 million would put it at over 15 million larger than Spain) by building soccer academies and developing young talent similar to the MLB. Once young American stars begin to turn up in the MLS and more importantly across the globe, the US will have more of a reason to tune in.

I believe soccer is still 20 years away from being a potential top American sport like Baseball, Basketball and Football. Strong US results in the 2014 world cup would certainly boost the chances of that happening, but isn't exactly dependent on it either. Kids that play soccer young will likely become attracted to watching the game and will help increase viewership from the sport even without US international success. As we are seeing now, viewership for foreign leagues is increasing fast and will likely mean higher viewership for our own leagues. Lets not forget, it wasn't long ago that American Football was separated into 2 leagues and was miles behind baseball in popularity, times do change.