Will Soccer ever make it big in America?

Can soccer ever become a primary commercial sport in America?

If I asked this question 10 years ago, I would have received an easy answer of "probably not" from most anyone due to the lack of audience and failures of the US professional system. Another common answer would be "why would anyone watch a game where there can be a 0-0 tie", a typical "patriotic" response. But, 10 years later it is beginning to look like the United States might be ready to move soccer from a secondary sport to the big time.

While the MLS is still not considered an elite league, it is clearly becoming a destination for older stars and 2nd tier youth talent (predominantly from USA, Central America and Southern America). Players like Beckham, Ljunberg, Henry, Marquez all gave up the chance to play in top flight leagues to play in the MLS, likely for the money, commercial value and/or the chance to help develop US professional soccer. While collecting a pool past-their-prime stars doesn't exactly mean the MLS will develop into a premier destination for talent, it is an example that it might become a destination for players who want a fresh start or a substantial change in venue, with proper payment of course. Many secondary leagues in other countries buy top notch players at a price, as witnessed by teams in Russia, Middle East, and Asia. This growing trend is clearly helping the MLS garner more viewership (as seen with the Beckham experiment).

MLS attendance is up to 18k per game, up over 3k per game in the last 10 years, a sign of possibly more good things to come. The commercial value of soccer has clearly increased, as the European Championship was broadcasted on ESPN and the English Premier league has received plentiful airtime. However, Soccer is still a secondary televised sport and the US is clearly behind the international powerhouses in talent (at both country and club level). For the United States to become infatuated with Soccer like Football or Basketball, it will require the United States to develop more talent via academies and better organized youth programs, much like the ones that have developed Spain to a powerhouse. The youth numbers are there as an estimated 17.5 million children were playing soccer in 2002 and is likely much higher now, so its just a matter of the US soccer federation (with help from MLS) developing a stronger youth program. Already US players have developed into world class talent and we see them beginning to appear in top foreign leagues (Dempsey in England, Bradley in Italy, etc).

When the United States begins to win at the world level (where World Cup viewership has increased steadily), it will likely increase viewership for the sport overall. As much as Americans refuse to admit it, defeating the World at its most popular game would be a great boost to the sports popularity, as I witnessed  during the Americans run and near defeat of Germany in 2002. Sure, there are the commercial restraints that soccer proposes (no commercials during play) and a natural resistance from American fans (low scoring, slow, etc), but they don't truly threaten the sports future success. If America is to make the Soccer one of its beloved 3 (so it would become 4), it will need to continue to develop the outstanding youth pool it has (17.1 million would put it at over 15 million larger than Spain) by building soccer academies and developing young talent similar to the MLB. Once young American stars begin to turn up in the MLS and more importantly across the globe, the US will have more of a reason to tune in.

I believe soccer is still 20 years away from being a potential top American sport like Baseball, Basketball and Football. Strong US results in the 2014 world cup would certainly boost the chances of that happening, but isn't exactly dependent on it either. Kids that play soccer young will likely become attracted to watching the game and will help increase viewership from the sport even without US international success. As we are seeing now, viewership for foreign leagues is increasing fast and will likely mean higher viewership for our own leagues. Lets not forget, it wasn't long ago that American Football was separated into 2 leagues and was miles behind baseball in popularity, times do change.

Obama Re-elected: What Industries Benefit?

Now that President Barack Obama has been re-elected for a 2nd term, will there be any benefactors on wall street? The common notion is that Republican presidents are better for the market due to lower tax brackets, simpler labor laws, etc, but there are also areas that will benefit from the return of Obama. Here are some ideas:

Alternative Fuels
Not that things were going all too well for them before Obama was re-elected, but you can feel pretty assured that public funding will still be there and restrictions against crude forms of fuel will maintain at least their current levels if not get stricter. Also, without having to win re-election , Obama has the opportunity to push greater energy efficiency agenda without worrying about American disdain before election. Obama is very keen on keeping jobs here in America, so he may push to support American made solar companies with taxpayer dollars to keep them competitive with Chinese manufacturers. As solar manufacturing, wind power and other forms of alternative energy get more efficient, they will become cheaper and more likely to be used.

3D Printing
Obama wants to create jobs. Obama  wants to push shorter, more vocational schools to support thriving industries. Obama wants America to make things for the world again. 3D printing technology is a chance for the US to use specialized technical labor to produce items at home at the same or lower cost as shipping them abroad. I think this industry will get all the support it needs with research money and support to thrive. Check out my write up of 3D systems here. 

 CRM and Organizational Efficiency Software
Obama has a young team under him who are very tech savvy. The government knows it needs to reduce payroll and make things more efficient. I believe implementing current technologies into government will be a big focus of the Obama team in the next 4 years. Big contracts will be had and anyone who can make the right stock picks will likely be rewarded.

Anyone else have any thoughts on this matter?

2012 Giants: A Year in Review

If 2010 was the year of torture, 2012 was the year of perseverance.

It started off the same way every year has for the Giants since 2008: they got the pitching staff of a champion...now will their offense do enough to push them through this year? Like most years, I was one of many who was skeptical of Brian Sabeans offseason moves. Beltran walked, Freddy Sanchez was hobbled, Pagan was coming off career lows, Cabrera was coming off career highs and our ROY catcher was returning from just about everything breaking in his lower foot. "Are we winning the world series? Lets just shoot for the NL West."

It became clear I had underestimated Sabean like I have a few other times in his tenure as the GM of the Giants, his offseason moves proved to be both deadly and heartbreaking all at the same time. Pagan brought us back a glimpse of 2010 Torres at the top of the lineup, Cabrera was at the top of the NL batting column, the dumpster dive Blanco was filling in nicely in right field and Theriot was doing his best Freddy Sanchez impersonation. The Giants finally had the look of a average if not above average offense, with guys producing before and after Panda and Posey. Most importantly, while Posey didn't come off the block hitting .300, you could tell the swing was still there and it was only a matter of time before he was going to be back to his old self.

The Giants could very well have been a 100 win team this year had Tim Lincecum been his traditionally excellent self. His struggles I think kept a lot of fans from believing this team was destined for greatness earlier on in the season, as an ERA of 6 would have normally been too much for the Giants bats to make up for. However, when you have a left fielder hitting .350 mid way through the season, it tends to help make up for poor performance in other areas and Cabrera provided a spark that I hadn't seen since the 2009 version of Pablo Sandoval and then some. Cabrera quickly became the face of the Giants and put them in the national spotlight when he took home All Star MVP honors.

The first time I realized that the Giants were a serious contender in 2012 was when I attended a game on August 14th, 2012 for this lineup:

Angel Pagan CF

Marco Scutaro 2B

Melky Cabrera LF

Buster Posey C

Pablo Sandoval 3B

Hunter Pence RF Brandon Belt 1B Brandon Crawford SS Madison Bumgarner P

As a Giant fan since the early 1995, this was the best lineup I had seen since 2003. 4 all-star caliber players in the middle of the lineup, with prototypical 1-2 hitters and some decent thump towards the end of the order. Defensively it was well above average and we had just got a shot in the arm by getting Pence via a steal of a trade (no offense Tommy Joseph, but you're no Zach Wheeler). This was the first time in a while where as a Giant fan I felt like we had one of the best lineups in baseball. That beauty of a lineup lasted one day...

The Cabrera steroid scandal hit the Giants hard and shook a fan base that was feeling pretty darn good about itself. The team appeared to be gelling and Melky was a fan favorite to say the least. To think that this man was fraudulent in his ability and his ethics after all we had believed he had accomplished in the season was frustrating. We were losing our best hitter, as the Dodgers were about to acquire a former all star outfielder, 1st baseman and pitcher. 2 games up, things were not looking good. Yet, again the team persevered...

Buster Posey showed that not only was he an all star caliber player during the 2nd half of the season, but he was capable of being a most valuable player. A .385 batting average, 16 home runs and a 1.100 OPS, while playing catcher; just mind boggling numbers. I would have been more than happy with Buster Posey playing near his 2010 numbers, but he went well above it. Just think about the grind the catching took on his newly reconstructed legs and how instead of surviving, he flourished as the season progressed. And where many similar Sabean moves had succeeded and failed, Sabean makes a move few notice that changes the landscape of our season. Adding Scutaro while Sandoval was down was potentially the move that made the season, as I have never seen a player transform himself or his team like Marco did. He appeared at times as unbreakable: like you almost knew the man was going to drive the ball back up the middle for a base hit. If Sandoval doesn't break the only Hammate bone he has left, there is a good chance that Scutaro is never a Giant. Scutaro was the ultimate figure head for the 2012 Giants, giving it all at the plate and on the field.

When many thought the Dodgers would take us in the standings, they began to slip away and it became clear the Giants were destined to stay atop the NL West. The Giants had lost their best hitter 110 games into the season, picked up a former all star who would barely hit .200 and their rivals had spent 200+ million dollars picking up big names, but the Giants persevered and played fundamental baseball to get a spot in the playoffs. The pitching was suspect the last month of the season and it seemed like the once perfect pitching rotation might actually be a point of weakness (many articles were written about how the reds had a better rotation going into the series) once the playoffs started.

The Reds series was a test for both the Giants players and Giants fans. A collage of arms beat us in game 1 after Cueto went down and we made Bronson Arroyo (who was fantastic) look like a right handed Tom Glavine, hitting the outside with a high 80's fastball and destroying us with his offspeed stuff down. We left San Francisco down 0-2 and many hung their heads low. I did however note at the time that the back end of the Reds rotation would have trouble in games 4 and 5 due to the Cueto injury and Latos history of needing full rest. Lincecum came up big, Rolen committed a rare error, our offense came back to life and our MVP hit a grand slam in a clinching game.

In many ways the Cardinals felt like they would be the hardest test for our team, since they had no weakness and were strong in their bullpen, starting staff and balance through their lineup. The Giants pitching was shaky in games 1,2 and 4, which resulted to a 3-1 lead for the cardinals. Once again, the team was forced to persevere and get back in the series. Zito had the key moment in the series, when he shut the Cardinals down for 7 and 2/3rd innings and brought the series back to ATT where we would shut the Cardinals down for the next 2 games. The bats had clearly come alive and the starting pitching had just had 3 straight amazing performances, they were ready for a over rested and unbalanced Tigers lineup.

The World Series was testament to how the Giants played 2012, great pitching with good defense and enough bursts of offense to keep us in every game. When Pablo hit those 3 home runs against Verlander, I felt for the first time in the playoffs that I was confident we would win. The tigers needed that road victory and could not afford to depend on the tired arms of Sanchez and Scherzer. It was evident during games 3 and 4 that those guys didn't have their best stuff and our hitters were good enough to handle what they had left in the tank. In game 4, everyone knew exactly what we needed in the 10th inning: a bloop and some Marco Scutaro. When he stepped up to the plate, it seemed destined for him to knock in Theriot, as by this point in the season Scutaro could do no wrong. Romo finished the game out in style, striking out the AL MVP Cabrera and giving San Francisco its 2nd World Series in 3 years.

The 2012 giants were vastly different than the 2010 version, no torture, just strong fundamental baseball from a group of guys that played for each other. The Matt Cain perfect game symbolized the 2012 Giants: when every guy steps up and does their job, perfection really is possible. This team didn't rely on timely home runs like the 2010 Giants and lightning in the bottle wasn't what got us to the World Series. We did all the little things and we did them better than our opponents, whether it was leading the league in sac flys, bunting guys over in the 10th inning, making that diving catch with runners in scoring position or shutting down a teams running attack. Think about all the adversities the Giants faced this year:

• Lose closer to season ending surgery
• 2 Time Cy Young Pitcher finishes the year with a 5+ ERA, the highest among qualifying starters
• 1B prospect hits 7 home runs for the year after hitting 9 in his first season in 2/5 the plate appearances
• Pablo Sandoval only plays in 108 games after breaking his Hammate bone again
• 1st half MVP tests positive for PEDs and is shut down for the season
• To help the team after losing 1st half MVP, add a former all star who hits only .219 for the rest of the season. 
• cleanup hitter is coming off season ending ankle surgery the year before

When something went wrong, there was always someone to step up and fill the shoes. It was a classy team that played hard and did enough to support the brilliant pitching. The bullpen during the playoffs was unbelievable, as it produced 2.35 era and .180 batting average in support of starting pitching that often needed 3+ innings of work. The 2012 Giants will be remembered by most for producing 6 elimination game victories, tying the all time record. I will remember it for being the best TEAM I have ever watched in San Francisco. 

(Near) Mid Season NFL Power Rankings

Week 7 ended with a classic Chicago Bears win (just scoring enough to support a strong defensive performance) and its about time to issue my power rankings. My rankings are no solely based on record or performance so far, but rather a teams chances to win the Super Bowl. So here they are:

1. Green Bay Packers (4-3): Beat up a dominant Texans team and reversing their momentum after a terrible start. Rodgers is still the best QB in football and that alone gives them a great shot at the Super Bowl. The Defense is vastly improved and while injuries are starting to pile up with Jennings, Woodson and MLB Smith our, this team has more than enough talent to get it done.

2. Houston Texans (6-1): Their defense and run game will ensure they beat bad and mediocre teams, but they clearly need to work on defending the pass and injuries are starting to pile up. Schaub needs to reconnect with Andre Johnson to regain a 2nd dimension on offense. They should win the AFC and get a shot at the superbowl, but you would have to think the passing attacks of New England, Pittsburgh and Denver could knock them out in the 2nd round.

3. New York Giants (5-2): The Giants and Packers have taught us one thing in this decade, a pass rush and a great quarterback is all it takes to win a Super Bowl. The Giants have shown this year that they have both of those and with the running game starting to show some serious life, they have a great chance to win another Super Bowl. They have the deepest roster on the offensive side of the ball and if they can get a healthy secondary, they will be tough to beat.

4. San Francisco 49ers (5-2): The 49ers have a dominant front 7 that hasn't nearly peaked this season, as Aldon Smith and Justin Smith still haven't produced like they did in 2011. The secondary has holes when that front 7 gives the QB enough time to drop back and deliver, which makes them vulnerable to teams with a good offensive line. Alex Smith is a great game manager, but unless they start completing some throws down the field and to the sidelines, defenses will fill the middle of the field and give them problems.

5. New England (4-3): Great balanced offense that will only get better as o-line + hernandez get healthy and lloyd get more involved. The defense is still a concern, as they lean heavily on their outside pass rush and patrick chung making big plays in the secondary, when healthy. They match up well against Houston and very well could be the AFC champs...yet again.

Biggest Surprise:

Easy...This guy is the most dynamic quarterback in the league and he is a rookie. He throws well in the pocket and this gives him more opportunities to open up defenses for his legs. Defenses load the box and he throws on them, they drop into a zone and he runs on them. 70% passing is INCREDIBLE for anyone, let alone a rookie who throws the ball deep. Defenses will adjust in the 2nd half...and so will RG3. Expect some grand passing totals, especially when Garcon comes back healthy. I knew he would be good, but I thought it would take a lot longer than 1 season for him to play like a top 5 QB.

Biggest Let Down:

Team went 8-8 in 2011 and fired their first year coach. While this roster isn't stacked, with a former top 10 QB, expected top 10 RB and young WR core were supposed to elevate this team to winning the AFC west. What we have seen from them is no running game, a inability to score TD's (even with blazing speed at WR and DMC) and an inconsistent offense. I was optimistic that this team would win the AFC west and now they are 2 games back from mediocrity.

Fantasy Football: Value Picks Part 2

If you missed the first part, it can be found here

This final portion of my top value picks will address players that I think are undervalued at their current ADP (average draft position). And they are:

Brent Celek

Not the sexiest name in fantasy football or a guy who is going to finish top 5 in his position. That being said, skipping on drafting a TE in the 1st 10 rounds will allow you to get deeper at thin positions like RB and QB. Celek has a 123 ADP on yahoo and around the same on CBS sports, or the 13th TE off the board. He finished 2012 with over 800 yards and 5 TD.

There are a few reasons I think Celek is a great value pick:

1. He finished last year 80th overall in yahoo
2. From weeks 8 on, Celek averaged 70 yards per game with 4 TD in that span. That averages out to 1100 yards and about 6 TD for a full season. 
3. The Eagles have no other real red zone threat, as the WR core is undersized. Celek should have more TD opportunities. 
4. Alge Crumpler had over 3 seasons with 700+ yards playing with Vick. Yes, Alge Crumpler who at 31 couldn't cut it in the NFL anymore. 

I would say Celek repeating his 2011 is more likely than him dropping off, especially if Vick can stay on the field. If that is the case, than he is worth at least a pick anywhere after 100, 21 picks before where he is going. He is not a top 5 TE, but he has the potential to be top 10, like he WAS last year. Vernon Davis is going at around 50 and although I have a huge man crush on Vernon, I will wait 50 picks later to grab Celek for similar production. Who knows, if the Eagles decide to play like they did in the 2nd half of 2011, Celek could be ready for his first 1000 yard season.

Shonn Greene

Has Shonn Greene been the replacement for LT and Thomas Jones that Jets fans were hoping? No, he hasn't been amazing or great. As a matter of fact, a lot of fantasy experts can't stand Greene or his performance the last 2 years. This is exactly why you should buy low on a former "breakout" candidate the last 2 years.

Will he finally have the season everyone thought was possible (1500 with 10td)? Probably not
Will he finally become a home run threat that helps the Jets make it back to the super bowl? No
Is he ranked 75th overall in yahoo and as the 26th best back on the board? Yes

Even CBS has this guy ranked well outside the top 40 players and so will most of the guys in your league who are DYING to draft CJ Spiller way too early. Shonn Greene finished last year as the 49th best player overall in yahoo rankings and as the 18th best back. He has no one on the depth chart that will steal carries (actually LT is gone and fumble prone mcknight is a 3rd down back at best).

Tebow might get some goal line carries, but the wildcat might actually get Greene more open lanes than he is used to, when teams are stacking 8 in the box. I'm not saying Draft Greene at 40 where he finished last year, but let other guys reach on "sleepers" like Spiller and Roy Helu while you pick up Greene in the 6th or 7th round potentially.

Denarius Moore 

Seems like analysts are going crazy with DHB as the breakout player of the year, but I still believe route running and hands are important aspects of football. Now, the guy lining up on the opposite side of DHB will be Denarius Moore and he has some breakaway speed as well, not to mention he can also catch.

Moore is going 96th overall in yahoo which seems right for a guy who finished 114th in overall fantasy points. However, he also missed 5 games last year and was pretty much the 3rd wr in another 2 where he had 2 or less catches. If you just take his stats from his 6 games started with Palmer under center, you get 406 yards receiving with 3 TD. Average that for 16 games and you get a wicked line of 1080 yards with 7-8 td.

Now Moore is more of a breakout pick for me than a great value pick, but when you consider the upside and the 10th round ADP, its hard not to consider that a good value for a breakout pick. I would like  to think Palmer will get more comfortable with the Raiders system and I think Moore will become his #1.

Dwight Howard in LA

That is all

Economic Growth Potential Part 1: American Manufacturing

It's easy to get caught up trying to figure out where the market as a whole is going to move in the future, which I can already tell you is likely up some and down some. As someone who is generally not equipped or trained in playing short term gains, I invest with the belief that I likely won't need to check how my stocks are doing every day. This gives me the benefit of not worrying too much about the direction of the market as a whole, unless we are talking a large scale movement down like a recession.

So, its worthwhile for me to focus on specific industries or areas of growth in the upcoming future, to help narrow my focus on companies that have even larger potential than their numbers show. The benefits being, when these industries start to really pick up, I am already sitting on some top stocks that will benefit. So here is my first pick for an emerging growth area.

American Manufacturing

 So, you may be ready to hit the back button to get distance yourself from my blog and I understand, the last 2 decades have not been kind to American manufacturing. We possess an expensive labor force, strict government regulation and face cheap foreign manufacturing. That being said, there are a number factors that lead me to believe that the decline is done and a bright future exists.

America has the benefit of being a country that contains expansive amounts of natural resources, especially oils and minerals. American mining has seen large growth in the last decade, including a 67% percent increase in employment, with global exploration spending down from 20% in 1993 to just 8% today. Just listen to this video for a brief summary

Having a stockpile of natural resources, strong transportation infrastructure (which much of Africa and Asia do not) and a history of manufacturing quality will make it much more attractive for companies to start returning their manufacturing to the United States.

Another key aspect of why I believe American Manufacturing will see large growth in the next decade is the advancements in manufacturing technology. Everyone has seen the Lexus commercials so that show up the mechanical arms that can basically create the cars and these technologies are only getting better. I believe components such as 3D Printing and advanced computing will allow manufacturers to remove labor from a lob of the components that now require it, by computer crafting most of the components. This will reduce the amount of manual labor needed, but also provide a large number of specialized workers that will require specialized computer skills. The days of the union Joe who crafted great cars by hands is still likely soon to be over, but it makes sense to have American workers doing the more specialized work without paying the shipping costs. Automation, the fear of the blue collar work force, may be the key in what brings a lot of the factories and work back to America.

Last but not least, I believe American companies are starting to really feel the heat from their foreign production. Its hard for them to control the plants they are working with and we have seen tons of negative publicity about labor conditions. Companies who still produce in America proudly show their "made in america" labels and I think this will not change. With labor rates rising in places like China, Vietnam and India, it will make sense once automation is more realistic, to move these jobs back.. Also, with college getting more expensive, a lot of young people might instead choose to try and make a career in something like manufacturing that doesn't require a degree for entry.

Some stocks I like who might benefit from this trend:
UTX:Make a lot of things like elevators, escalators and some aerospace components. Would benefit from automation. They would help supply elements for factories and new buildings.
DDD: Already one of my favorite stocks. Their technology could be a huge part of the development of American Manufacturing automation and efficiency.
AXL: Master of Drivetrain systems, which include commercial and large scale freight. More manufacturing means more trucks and transportation.